Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:22:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

9F 0x9ff7…d677 other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$156 (+37%) realized +$152 · open +$4

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +142% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +111% what you keep after slip

Net edge+111%after slip

Net WR75%break-even

Win rate75%3W / 1L

Drawdown13%max

Avg bet$47per market

Trades / day5.2pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit22%portable

Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +75%

net ROI/market (all)+119.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+142.3%	+119.2%	75%	75%	+48.7%
≤30d	4	+142.3%	+119.2%	75%	75%	+48.7%
≤90d	4	+142.3%	+119.2%	75%	75%	+48.7%
all	4	+142.3%	+119.2%	75%	75%	+48.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.2 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+119.2%	75%	+48.7%
10%	+98.2%	75%	+34.4%
15%	+79.1%	25%	+21.4%
20%	+61.5%	25%	+9.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 94% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +64% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +142% · $-wt +64% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$52 vs −$21 · ×2.49 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×7.48 per $1 lost it wins $7.48

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$115

Realized+$152

Unrealized+$4

Win rate (resolved)75%

Wins / losses3 / 1

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions5

Markets (closed)4 / 9

History coverage3d

Avg bet$47

Trades / day5.2

Drawdown13%

Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	No	31¢	32¢	$97	$101	+$5 (+5%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	No	39¢	38¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	No	33¢	32¢	$3	$3	−$0 (-2%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	24¢	24¢	$3	$3	−$0 (-2%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?	No	16¢	16¢	$3	$3	−$0 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$150	−$21	-14%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw?	Jun 21	$30	+$8	+27%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$28	+$147	+525%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$1	$0	+31%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	10¢	$129	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY No	31¢	$99	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	SELL No	30¢	$92	1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	11¢	$75	1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	11¢	$75	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY No	31¢	$99	1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	BUY No	33¢	$3	2h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	24¢	$3	2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	16¢	$3	2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	BUY No	39¢	$5	2h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw?	BUY No	78¢	$30	16h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY No	16¢	$20	20h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY No	16¢	$6	20h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY No	16¢	$2	20h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	76¢	$1	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.05 · official $115.05 (match) · 18 history records