Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:28:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9ff6…1369 crypto 549 markets active 2h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$44 (+0%) realized +$47 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate60%320W / 215L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$890now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$73
7 days−$418
14 days−$458
30 days−$150
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 53% +$144
crypto 34% −$394
other 8% +$116
world 4% +$5
sports 1% +$15
tech 0% +$4
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +53.8% +39.1% 48% 39% -25.0%
≤30d 68 +14.8% +3.9% 57% 34% -10.7%
≤90d 154 -0.7% -10.2% 55% 29% -9.0%
all 535 -5.2% -14.2% 60% 38% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 38% -9.7%
10% -22.4% 28% -18.4%
15% -29.9% 22% -26.3%
20% -36.8% 18% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$15 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$890
Realized+$47
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses320 / 215
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)535 / 549
History coverage146d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 535 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026? No 66¢ 68¢ $228 $233 +$5 (+2%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? No 66¢ 68¢ $180 $185 +$5 (+3%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? Yes 57¢ 52¢ $114 $104 −$10 (-9%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? No 79¢ 80¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? No 92¢ 91¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Yes 75¢ 68¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? No 33¢ 32¢ $69 $66 −$3 (-4%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? No 67¢ 78¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+16%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Yes 9¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 19 $50 +$115 +229%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 18? Jun 19 $118 −$118 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 18 $71 −$67 -95%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? AND Will Cz Jun 18 $2 +$9 +445%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +31%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $77 on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$8 +778%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 16? Jun 16 $50 +$9 +17%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,305 +$134 +10%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $82 on June 15? Jun 15 $15 +$3 +21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $17 −$4 -26%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $220 +$7 +3%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 12? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 15 $566 −$500 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$6 +574%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +159%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $353 +$9 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 12 $292 +$13 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 12 $100 +$6 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 7? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Zachary Svajda Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 5? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 4? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Jun 11 $382 +$23 +6%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on June 3? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 Week of May 18 2026? Jun 11 $101 −$101 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$2 +74%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 11? Jun 11 $51 +$27 +53%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 11 $391 −$11 -3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 09 $2 +$1 +26%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 8? Jun 08 $61 +$25 +41%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 8? Jun 08 $10 $0 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $98 on June 8? Jun 08 $100 −$1 -1%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $2 $0 +11%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $1,002 +$49 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $300 +$7 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 33¢ $71 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL Yes 75¢ $100 4h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY Yes 57¢ $90 9h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY No 66¢ $101 9h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY No 65¢ $81 9h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY Yes 56¢ $24 9h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY Yes 75¢ $202 10h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? BUY No 92¢ $100 10h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? BUY No 79¢ $101 10h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 67¢ $10 28h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 18? BUY No 1¢ $0 29h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 18? BUY No 1¢ $1 29h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 98¢ $151 29h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 3¢ $1 29h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 11¢ $1 29h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? AND Will Cz SELL 34¢ $11 30h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 99¢ $15 30h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 8¢ $1 36h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 31¢ $10 42h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 18? BUY No 62¢ $20 42h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 31¢ $3 42h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 18? BUY No 60¢ $10 42h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 36¢ $10 42h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 18? BUY No 60¢ $20 42h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 18? BUY No 68¢ $52 43h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 27¢ $21 43h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 24¢ $3 43h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 18? BUY No 70¢ $14 43h
Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026? BUY No 64¢ $128 45h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? AND Will Cz BUY 6¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $890.17 · official $890.13 (match) · 1592 history records