Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:43:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
9F 0x9ff4…d731 sports 189 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,426 (-8%) realized −$4,280 · open −$146
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%83W / 102L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$296per market
Trades / day24.8pace
Fees−$802est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$364now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11,338
7 days−$10,482
14 days−$5,992
30 days−$5,403
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$7,394
other 6% +$1,844
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -32.8% -39.2% 30% 29% -58.5%
≤30d 185 +0.3% -9.2% 45% 44% -18.4%
≤90d 185 +0.3% -9.2% 45% 44% -18.4%
all 185 +0.3% -9.2% 45% 44% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 44% -18.4%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 42% -26.2%
15% -25.9% 37% -33.3%
20% -33.1% 32% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +35% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$229 vs −$242 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$364
Realized−$4,280
Unrealized−$146
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses83 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$802
Open positions4
Markets (closed)185 / 189
History coverage28d
Avg bet$296
Trades / day24.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 185 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Inner Circle Esports 56¢ 100¢ $157 $281 +$125 (+80%)
Counter-Strike: MASQ vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Alpha Dominion Nation 25¢ 100¢ $18 $72 +$54 (+300%)
Spain to win the second half? No 51¢ 52¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European Pro League Series 8 Closed Qualifier Group B eternal premium 32¢ 0¢ $326 $1 −$325 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 26 $2,252 −$15 -1%
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America Jun 26 $184 −$1 -0%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 26 $552 +$177 +32%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $676 −$666 -98%
Dota 2: the bug vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $105 −$103 -98%
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - LG Ul Jun 26 $101 −$101 -99%
Valorant: 9z Team vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular S Jun 25 $56 −$55 -98%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Jun 25 $166 +$152 +92%
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $101 +$81 +80%
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $92 +$116 +127%
Counter-Strike: OlyBet SB vs Subtop De France (BO3) - European Pro Lea Jun 25 $110 +$87 +79%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $186 −$185 -99%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 25 $903 −$903 -100%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs MIBR Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $43 +$86 +203%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $442 +$140 +32%
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Virtus.pro (+1.5) Jun 25 $2,581 −$2,555 -99%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ Jun 25 $164 −$149 -91%
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs illwill (+1.5) Jun 25 $28 −$28 -100%
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - ESEA European Jun 25 $35 −$35 -100%
Map Handicap: HERO.A (-1.5) vs RUSTEC (+1.5) Jun 25 $29 −$29 -100%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $171 −$171 -100%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 Jun 25 $159 −$159 -100%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $39 −$39 -100%
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 25 $143 −$143 -100%
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs Eintracht Spandau (+1.5) Jun 25 $193 −$193 -100%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) Jun 25 $240 −$240 -100%
Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Hokori (+1.5) Jun 25 $260 −$257 -99%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Atreides (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Jun 25 $292 −$292 -100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-6.5) vs 9z (+6.5) Jun 25 $258 −$258 -100%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 25 $675 −$341 -51%
Counter-Strike: Isurus vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ Jun 25 $466 −$466 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 25 $465 −$447 -96%
Map Handicap: GZ (-1.5) vs MARKandLARRY (+1.5) Jun 25 $233 −$233 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 25 $450 −$450 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 25 $632 −$632 -100%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 25 $426 −$426 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 25 $146 −$146 -100%
Map Handicap: SASHI (-1.5) vs 9INE (+1.5) Jun 25 $419 −$419 -100%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group Jun 25 $1,125 −$1,125 -100%
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 25 $317 −$298 -94%
Map Handicap: XLG (-1.5) vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (+1.5) Jun 25 $984 −$984 -100%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr Jun 25 $151 +$89 +59%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: UCAM Esports Club (-3.5) vs MIR (+3.5) Jun 24 $204 +$296 +146%
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Power Rangers (+1.5) Jun 24 $238 +$81 +34%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos Jun 24 $139 +$94 +67%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $249 +$261 +105%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Jun 24 $11 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Jun 24 $72 +$76 +105%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $73 −$9 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Power Rangers 61¢ $468 17m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Power Rangers 61¢ $240 19m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Power Rangers 61¢ $15 19m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Power Rangers 61¢ $1 19m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Power Rangers 61¢ $486 19m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Power Rangers 61¢ $1,027 20m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 60¢ $241 59m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 60¢ $13 59m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 60¢ $59 59m
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America SELL NRG Academy 53¢ $115 1h
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America SELL NRG Academy 53¢ $68 1h
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America BUY NRG Academy 53¢ $40 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 63¢ $9 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 63¢ $593 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 63¢ $338 1h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Clo SELL Yellow Submarine 100¢ $728 1h
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America BUY NRG Academy 53¢ $13 1h
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America BUY NRG Academy 53¢ $31 1h
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America BUY NRG Academy 53¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 60¢ $202 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 60¢ $723 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 60¢ $75 1h
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America BUY NRG Academy 53¢ $6 1h
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America BUY NRG Academy 53¢ $26 1h
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America BUY NRG Academy 53¢ $26 1h
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America BUY NRG Academy 53¢ $7 2h
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P BUY eternal premium 48¢ $8 2h
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P BUY eternal premium 48¢ $12 2h
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P BUY eternal premium 48¢ $16 2h
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P BUY eternal premium 48¢ $16 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $363.83 · official $363.83 (match) · 933 history records