Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:46:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
9F 0x9fed…4d6f crypto 67 markets active 1h ago coverage 615d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$80 (+1%) realized +$80 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate89%58W / 7L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$380now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% −$12
other 18% +$1
tech 15% +$4
politics 11% +$84
world 3% +$2
economics 3% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 +1.2% -8.4% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 14 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -9.1%
all 65 -3.6% -12.7% 89% 6% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 6% -8.6%
10% -21.1% 5% -17.3%
15% -28.7% 5% -25.3%
20% -35.7% 5% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.77 per $1 lost it wins $2.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

615d coverage
Net worth$380
Realized+$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses58 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)65 / 67
History coverage615d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $285 $285 +$0 (+0%)
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In T1 95¢ 94¢ $95 $94 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on June 9? Jun 09 $120 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $44 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $200 +$1 +0%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? Jun 01 $160 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 30 $62 +$2 +4%
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from May 5 to May 12, May 30 $330 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? May 07 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 07 $75 +$2 +3%
Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Cont May 07 $108 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? May 07 $142 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on April 13? Apr 16 $133 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Apr 12 $35 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar Apr 12 $44 $0 +0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 12 $288 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026? Mar 11 $35 $0 +0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 11 $365 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026 Feb 08 $20 +$2 +9%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January? Feb 08 $70 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Feb 08 $270 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jan 24 $88 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026? Jan 16 $20 +$2 +12%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on January 14? Jan 16 $125 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 14 $120 $0 +0%
Solana all time high before 2026? Jan 14 $120 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31? Jan 14 $150 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Dec 22 $150 $0 +0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 14 $128 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,200 in November? Dec 14 $225 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,000 on November 18? Nov 24 $245 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Nov 24 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 Nov 17 $400 +$1 +0%
Will Solana reach $260 October 20-26? Nov 06 $50 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in October? Nov 06 $150 $0 +0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 06 $200 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 October 13-19? Oct 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $240 October 13-19? Oct 20 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $280 on October 10? Oct 18 $205 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in September? Oct 09 $25 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in September? Oct 09 $25 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from September 12 to September 19, 202 Oct 09 $145 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3400 on August 11? Sep 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1500 in August? Sep 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in July? Aug 09 $100 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in July? Aug 09 $110 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jul 18 $166 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50k in May? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? Jun 14 $111 $0 +0%
X allowed to operate in China before May? May 24 $35 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in April? May 24 $65 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in April? May 24 $65 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $285 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 95¢ $95 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $46 10d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $201 11d
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $120 11d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $44 11d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $200 11d
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $160 20d
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from May 5 to May 12, BUY No 100¢ $330 43d
Will Trump visit China by June 30? BUY Yes 96¢ $62 43d
Will Trump visit China by April 30? BUY No 100¢ $34 55d
Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Cont BUY No 100¢ $108 63d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY No 97¢ $75 68d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $142 68d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on April 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $133 68d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? BUY No 100¢ $35 88d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar BUY No 100¢ $44 88d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $288 99d
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $35 129d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 100¢ $365 130d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $70 146d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026 BUY No 91¢ $20 146d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $88 153d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $20 156d
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $270 156d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on January 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $125 156d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $120 178d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 BUY No 100¢ $150 187d
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31? BUY No 99¢ $150 187d
Solana all time high before 2026? BUY No 99¢ $120 187d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $379.64 · official $379.64 (match) · 135 history records