Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:31:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
9F 0x9fe5…0a5d crypto 14 markets active 248d ago coverage 654d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$28,304 (+35%) realized +$28,304 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +122% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +82% what you keep after slip
Net edge+82%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%6W / 8L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$5,859per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% +$17,817
politics 13% +$5,598
other 5% −$3,986
finance 3% +$10,300
economics 2% −$1,424
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+101.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 14 +122.4% +101.2% 43% 43% +22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +101.2% 43% +22.0%
10% ← realistic here +82.0% 36% +10.3%
15% +64.4% 21% -0.4%
20% +48.3% 21% -10.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +122% · $-wt +35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +258% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6,315 vs −$1,198 · ×5.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.95 per $1 lost it wins $3.95
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

654d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$28,304
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses6 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage654d
Avg bet$5,859
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will ServisFirst Bancshares (SFBS) beat quarterly earnings? Oct 22 $2,700 +$10,300 +382%
Fed rate cut by March 20? Jan 30 $1,260 −$1,260 -100%
Andrew Tate guilty of human trafficking in 2024? Jan 30 $3,400 −$3,400 -100%
Fed rate cut by January 31? Jan 29 $164 −$164 -100%
Will Ye say something antisemitic before February? Jan 29 $675 −$586 -87%
Will Nikki Haley win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? Jan 25 $3,280 −$3,280 -100%
SEC approves first spot Bitcoin ETF on Jan 10? Jan 25 $8,068 +$2,170 +27%
SEC to NOT approve spot Bitcoin ETF by Jan 10? Jan 25 $6,034 +$854 +14%
Trump margin of victory in New Hampshire Primary >15% Jan 25 $6,535 +$9,487 +145%
Will Donald Trump win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? Jan 25 $609 −$609 -100%
BTC ETFs first week combined AUM between $10-30 billion? Jan 23 $206 +$3,791 +1841%
BTC ETFs first week combined AUM under $10 billion? Jan 23 $998 −$179 -18%
Ethereum ETF approved by May 31? Jan 12 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15? Jan 11 $47,992 +$11,287 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will ServisFirst Bancshares (SFBS) beat quarterly earnings? BUY No 21¢ $2,700 247d
Fed rate cut by March 20? BUY Yes 42¢ $1,260 877d
Andrew Tate guilty of human trafficking in 2024? BUY Yes 17¢ $3,400 877d
Fed rate cut by January 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $105 877d
Fed rate cut by January 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $9 878d
Fed rate cut by January 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $9 878d
Fed rate cut by January 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 878d
Fed rate cut by January 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 878d
Fed rate cut by January 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $17 878d
Fed rate cut by January 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 878d
Fed rate cut by January 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 878d
Fed rate cut by January 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 878d
Will Ye say something antisemitic before February? SELL Yes 2¢ $89 878d
Will Donald Trump win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? BUY No 3¢ $120 883d
Trump margin of victory in New Hampshire Primary >15% BUY No 40¢ $3,000 883d
Trump margin of victory in New Hampshire Primary >15% BUY No 41¢ $57 883d
Trump margin of victory in New Hampshire Primary >15% BUY No 42¢ $2,100 883d
Trump margin of victory in New Hampshire Primary >15% BUY No 41¢ $1,378 883d
Will Nikki Haley win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? BUY Yes 3¢ $14 883d
Will Nikki Haley win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? BUY Yes 3¢ $8 883d
Will Nikki Haley win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 883d
Will Nikki Haley win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? BUY Yes 3¢ $899 883d
Will Nikki Haley win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? BUY Yes 3¢ $1,446 883d
Will Nikki Haley win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? BUY Yes 2¢ $497 883d
Will Donald Trump win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? BUY No 2¢ $489 883d
Will Nikki Haley win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 883d
Will Nikki Haley win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? BUY Yes 2¢ $410 883d
Will Ye say something antisemitic before February? BUY Yes 4¢ $291 885d
Will Ye say something antisemitic before February? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 885d
Will Ye say something antisemitic before February? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 885d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 129 history records