Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:09:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9fe4…1ac5 world 91 markets active 2h ago coverage 528d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate39%34W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$6
other 24% −$2
politics 22% −$4
sports 9% −$2
economics 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.0% -9.5% 30% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 23 +0.9% -8.7% 43% 4% -9.2%
≤90d 76 +1.0% -8.6% 36% 3% -9.3%
all 88 -2.8% -12.1% 39% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 5% -9.5%
10% -20.5% 2% -18.2%
15% -28.2% 1% -26.1%
20% -35.2% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

528d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses34 / 54
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)88 / 91
History coverage528d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+22%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 25¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-75%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $52 −$1 -3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 19 $158 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $12 +$1 +6%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $19 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $7 −$1 -8%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $123 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $52 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $53 +$5 +9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $57 −$1 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $8 $0 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $4 $0 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $54 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $48 +$1 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $146 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $47 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $61 +$2 +3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $47 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $43 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $82 −$1 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 02 $47 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $47 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $2 $0 +13%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $40 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $17 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 20 $2 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 19 $46 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 19 $2 $0 -4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 18 $14 $0 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 18 $1 +$1 +75%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $139 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $48 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 14 $54 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $47 $0 +1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $46 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $46 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $120 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $87 +$1 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $43 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 20 $49 −$1 -2%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $12 $0 -2%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $4 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $35 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 18 $45 +$1 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 17 $2 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 17 $4 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $50 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $52 4h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $24 15h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $33 15h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $57 15h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 32h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 32h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 32h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 33h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 33h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 33h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $41 47h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $41 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $19 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $7 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $7 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 12¢ $7 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $6 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $1 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $13 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $2 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $36 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $45 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $6 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $52 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $52 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 72¢ $58 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 66¢ $53 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $47 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.51 · official $0.00 (match) · 383 history records