Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:23:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
9F 0x9fe4…5187 sports 32 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$630 (+5%) realized +$630 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate26%6W / 17L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$373per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$84est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$185
7 days+$185
14 days−$1,556
30 days+$744
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$1,840
other 42% −$1,081
crypto 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-46.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +91.2% +73.0% 100% 100% +73.0%
≤30d 23 -40.6% -46.3% 26% 22% -2.7%
≤90d 23 -40.6% -46.3% 26% 22% -2.7%
all 23 -40.6% -46.3% 26% 22% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.3% 22% -2.7%
10% -51.4% 22% -12.0%
15% -56.1% 17% -20.5%
20% -60.4% 17% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -20% → late -60% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$542 vs −$148 · ×3.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$630
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses6 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$84
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 32
History coverage17d
Avg bet$373
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $203 +$185 +91%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1,008 −$97 -10%
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 20 $51 −$4 -7%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $71 −$70 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $955 −$950 -99%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 20 $229 −$225 -98%
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 20 $304 −$300 -99%
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 20 $252 −$250 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2,596 +$219 +8%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $51 +$61 +120%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1,007 +$324 +32%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $77 −$75 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $26 +$60 +234%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $2,483 +$2,404 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $388 3m
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $203 1h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 67¢ $912 9d
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 29¢ $47 9d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 2.5 BUY Over 20¢ $5 9d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $71 9d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 0.5 BUY Over 81¢ $955 9d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 25¢ $20 9d
Arda Güler: 1+ goals AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY 20¢ $20 9d
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 47¢ $152 9d
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 61¢ $101 9d
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 30¢ $51 9d
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 78¢ $252 9d
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 61¢ $202 9d
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 47¢ $76 9d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $1,008 9d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 9d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 92¢ $2,596 11d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score AND Will Colombia win on BUY 59¢ $146 11d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score AND Will Panama win on 20 BUY 53¢ $254 11d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $112 11d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY 30¢ $51 11d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY 14¢ $21 11d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 50¢ $102 11d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 11d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 45¢ $51 11d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 51¢ $203 11d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1,332 12d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 24¢ $77 12d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 44 history records