Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:58:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9fe2…6825 crypto 379 markets active 0h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$280 (+4%) realized +$280 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate58%218W / 161L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day31.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$44
7 days−$44
14 days−$54
30 days−$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$110
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -42.8% -48.2% 29% 29% -35.0%
≤30d 11 -50.8% -55.5% 27% 18% -38.0%
≤90d 379 +3.3% -6.6% 58% 51% -9.6%
all 379 +3.3% -6.6% 58% 51% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.6% 51% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -15.5% 42% -18.3%
15% -23.7% 31% -26.2%
20% -31.1% 21% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$11 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$280
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses218 / 161
Open positions0
Markets (closed)379 / 379
History coverage67d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day31.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 379 Trades
no open positions (91 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1AM ET Jun 16 $61 +$13 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$1 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET Jun 16 $55 −$39 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$4 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 07 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 07 $6 −$2 -29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 16? May 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 15? May 14 $22 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10PM ET May 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 12? May 11 $15 −$14 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14? May 11 $9 −$9 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 13? May 11 $74 −$71 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET May 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 1PM ET May 06 $29 −$18 -63%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET May 06 $5 −$3 -49%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET May 06 $5 +$1 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 12PM ET May 06 $52 +$9 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET May 06 $78 −$77 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET May 06 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET May 06 $16 +$7 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11AM ET May 06 $21 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 06 $26 −$3 -12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 7? May 06 $33 +$5 +16%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 6? May 06 $105 −$6 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8AM ET May 06 $14 +$5 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET May 06 $21 +$2 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 7AM ET May 06 $6 +$4 +64%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET May 06 $21 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET May 05 $10 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1PM ET May 05 $21 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET May 05 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET May 05 $17 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 05 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET May 05 $4 −$4 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET May 05 $2 −$1 -66%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 12PM ET May 05 $23 −$19 -82%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET May 05 $2 −$1 -30%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET May 05 $12 +$4 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 05 $2 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 9AM ET May 05 $6 +$3 +50%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 5? May 05 $71 −$26 -36%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 05 $2 −$2 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET May 05 $6 $0 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET May 05 $4 +$3 +64%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET May 05 $3 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $2 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $2 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $4 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $8 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $6 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $20 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $14 38m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $19 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $4 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $3 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $4 40m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $11 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $31 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $4 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2146 history records