Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:22:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9fdd…ae97 other 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$74 (-12%) realized −$74 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate48%11W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days−$86
14 days−$74
30 days−$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$184
sports 23% +$109
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +14.3% +3.4% 47% 37% -28.6%
≤30d 23 +15.7% +4.7% 48% 39% -22.0%
≤90d 23 +15.7% +4.7% 48% 39% -22.0%
all 23 +15.7% +4.7% 48% 39% -22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.7% 39% -22.0%
10% -5.3% 39% -29.5%
15% -14.5% 39% -36.3%
20% -22.8% 35% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +75% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$24 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$74
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses11 / 12
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage9d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$13 +62%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$8 +83%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 +$3 +6%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $40 +$3 +8%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $7 +$4 +55%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$28 +276%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 +$61 +596%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $60 −$60 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $17 +$19 +111%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 +$51 +250%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $50 +$21 +42%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $54 2h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 17h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 17h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 17h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 17h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $6 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $104 5d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 5d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY India 92¢ $2 5d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY India 92¢ $38 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $10 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $50 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $7 6d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $60 6d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $7 7d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 7d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 7d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.59 · official $52.59 (match) · 37 history records