Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:17:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

9F 0x9fd7…27a2 sports 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$86 (+6%) realized +$86 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip

Net edge-16%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate65%13W / 7L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$71per market

Trades / day12.6pace

Fees−$7est.

Kalshi-fit76%portable

Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-9.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	20	+0.2%	-9.3%	65%	50%	-4.7%
≤30d	20	+0.2%	-9.3%	65%	50%	-4.7%
≤90d	20	+0.2%	-9.3%	65%	50%	-4.7%
all	20	+0.2%	-9.3%	65%	50%	-4.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover12.6 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-9.3%	50%	-4.7%
10%	-18.0%	35%	-13.8%
15%	-25.9%	20%	-22.1%
20%	-33.2%	20%	-29.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 24% · top 2 40% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

23% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +0% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +23% → late -23% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$27 vs −$38 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.29 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$42

Realized+$86

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)65%

Wins / losses13 / 7

Est. fees paid−$7

Open positions1

Markets (closed)20 / 21

History coverage3d

Avg bet$71

Trades / day12.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	No	43¢	42¢	$43	$42	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17?	Jun 17	$153	+$48	+31%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$100	+$55	+55%
Spread: France (-1.5)	Jun 17	$61	−$61	-100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	Jun 17	$97	−$97	-100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16?	Jun 16	$97	+$3	+3%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo	Jun 16	$95	+$5	+5%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch	Jun 16	$83	+$17	+20%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$57	+$33	+57%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 16	$20	−$20	-100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Jun 16	$20	−$20	-100%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main	Jun 16	$51	−$51	-100%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5)	Jun 16	$37	+$7	+18%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$88	+$12	+13%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$175	+$7	+4%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major	Jun 15	$143	+$32	+22%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Jun 15	$107	+$36	+34%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	Jun 15	$23	+$84	+365%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car	Jun 15	$7	−$7	-100%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card)	Jun 15	$13	−$13	-100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$11	+$9	+76%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	43¢	$44	1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17?	SELL Up	100¢	$201	2h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17?	BUY Up	76¢	$70	10h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17?	BUY Up	76¢	$84	10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	64¢	$100	15h
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	BUY Iraq	41¢	$97	19h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16?	BUY Down	97¢	$97	21h
Spread: France (-1.5)	BUY Senegal	60¢	$61	23h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo	BUY Alex de Minaur	95¢	$95	23h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch	BUY Nuclear TigeRES	83¢	$58	27h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch	BUY Nuclear TigeRES	83¢	$25	27h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	76¢	$38	38h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	47¢	$19	39h
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5)	BUY Saudi Arabia	85¢	$26	42h
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5)	BUY Saudi Arabia	85¢	$11	42h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	88¢	$44	45h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	88¢	$44	45h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	SELL No	100¢	$182	46h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	96¢	$26	2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	96¢	$41	2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	96¢	$18	2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	96¢	$90	2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major	SELL BetBoom Team	100¢	$175	2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major	BUY BetBoom Team	81¢	$143	2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	SELL 9z	100¢	$143	2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	BUY 9z	74¢	$107	2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	BUY Justin Gaethje	21¢	$23	2d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main	BUY Aiemann Zahabi	23¢	$20	2d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)	BUY Derrick Lewis	21¢	$20	2d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main	BUY Aiemann Zahabi	23¢	$10	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.50 · official $42.50 (match) · 52 history records