Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:18:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9fd6…5ab1 weather 650 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 24d only
✗ bot/MM pace (117 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$211 (+0%) realized +$209 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate100%633W / 2L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$168per market
Trades / day116.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,450now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$45
14 days+$22
30 days+$857
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$859
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (117 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 179 +0.2% -9.4% 99% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 635 +1.8% -7.9% 100% 1% -8.8%
≤90d 635 +1.8% -7.9% 100% 1% -8.8%
all 635 +1.8% -7.9% 100% 1% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover116.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.9% 1% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -16.7% 1% -17.5%
15% -24.8% 1% -25.5%
20% -32.2% 1% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$67 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×7.35 per $1 lost it wins $7.35
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$2,450
Realized+$209
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses633 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions15
Markets (closed)635 / 650
History coverage24d ⚠
Avg bet$168
Trades / day116.9
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 635 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $686 $687 +$2 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on June 15? No 100¢ 99¢ $374 $372 −$2 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $300 $301 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $179 $179 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $172 $172 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $123 $123 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $108 $108 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C or below on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $108 $108 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $86 $86 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $78 $78 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $76 $76 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $55 $55 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $52 $52 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C or higher on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 15? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $122 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $428 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $230 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $316 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $122 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 96°F or higher on June 14? Jun 15 $102 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 15 $102 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $171 −$13 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 14? Jun 15 $172 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 14? Jun 15 $122 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 15 $86 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 14? Jun 15 $258 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 36°C or higher on June Jun 15 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 14? Jun 15 $172 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $172 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 15 $86 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 63°F or below on June Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 14? Jun 15 $287 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 14? Jun 15 $81 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 14? Jun 15 $91 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $287 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $253 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $172 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $207 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 14? Jun 14 $86 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $51 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $43 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $170 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 14? Jun 14 $172 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $287 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $114 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $171 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $269 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $217 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $235 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $201 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $171 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $86 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $81 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $63 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $172 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $34 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $209 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $86 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $73 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $287 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 14 $607 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $55 28m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $55 59m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $46 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $61 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $61 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $58 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $53 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $53 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $86 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $41 2h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $53 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $86 2h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $52 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $86 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $37 3h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $86 3h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $86 3h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $86 4h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $86 4h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $86 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $37 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $18 6h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $17 7h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $17 7h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $20 7h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $20 7h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 7h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $5 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,449.89 · official $2,449.89 (match) · 3500 history records