Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:46:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
9F 0x9fd6…1fa0 sports 31 markets active 5h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,457 (-1%) realized −$1,457 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%14W / 17L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,660per market
Trades / day17.8pace
Fees−$1,799est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$3,192
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +12.9% +2.1% 45% 45% -12.1%
≤30d 31 +12.9% +2.1% 45% 45% -12.1%
≤90d 31 +12.9% +2.1% 45% 45% -12.1%
all 31 +12.9% +2.1% 45% 45% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.8 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.1% 45% -12.1%
10% ← realistic here -7.7% 45% -20.5%
15% -16.6% 42% -28.2%
20% -24.8% 42% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$4,992) neutral
Persistence
early +38% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4,006 vs −$3,487 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,457
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses14 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$1,799
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage4d
Avg bet$3,660
Trades / day17.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 16 $694 −$683 -98%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $457 −$445 -97%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $2,486 −$2,444 -98%
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon Jun 16 $4,456 −$4,456 -100%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 16 $3,248 +$3,197 +98%
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti Jun 16 $783 +$3,417 +437%
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Jun 16 $1,501 −$1,501 -100%
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 16 $3,588 −$3,588 -100%
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 15 $4,899 −$4,899 -100%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $5,559 −$5,559 -100%
Dublin: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 15 $4,268 −$4,268 -100%
Nottingham 2: Tomas Barrios vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 15 $5,934 +$4,513 +76%
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia Jun 15 $5,085 −$5,085 -100%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $4,991 +$6,925 +139%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $3,002 +$5,374 +179%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $2,912 −$2,912 -100%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $7,617 −$7,617 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $6,456 +$4,071 +63%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $4,124 −$4,124 -100%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $7,197 +$7,350 +102%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Vukic vs Harry Wendelken Jun 14 $3,472 −$2,731 -79%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3,260 +$815 +25%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $5,997 −$3,952 -66%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $4,992 +$5,248 +105%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Felix Balshaw Jun 13 $4,256 −$4,124 -97%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 13 $4,051 +$2,887 +71%
Cattolica: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Francesco Forti Jun 13 $3,056 +$4,876 +160%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 13 $955 +$1,621 +170%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Jun 13 $2,392 +$3,334 +139%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $887 −$887 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $890 +$2,456 +276%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Juan Bautista Torres 47¢ $694 4h
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic BUY Marin Cilic 10¢ $457 12h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm BUY Martin Damm 43¢ $2,486 14h
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon BUY Bernard Tomic 57¢ $1,013 16h
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon BUY Bernard Tomic 58¢ $3,443 16h
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato SELL Marco Cecchinato 100¢ $6,446 16h
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato BUY Marco Cecchinato 50¢ $3,248 17h
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti SELL Darya Astakhova 99¢ $4,199 17h
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti BUY Darya Astakhova 18¢ $783 19h
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez BUY Carlos Maria Zarate 51¢ $1,501 30h
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur BUY Damir Dzumhur 49¢ $1,591 33h
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur BUY Damir Dzumhur 50¢ $1,997 33h
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano BUY Franco Agamenone 43¢ $928 34h
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano BUY Franco Agamenone 39¢ $3,972 34h
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston BUY Anna Blinkova 40¢ $5,559 34h
Nottingham 2: Tomas Barrios vs Benjamin Bonzi SELL Benjamin Bonzi 100¢ $10,447 34h
Nottingham 2: Tomas Barrios vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Benjamin Bonzi 56¢ $5,934 35h
Dublin: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Nicolas Mejia BUY Juan Pablo Ficovich 46¢ $4,268 36h
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia BUY Beatriz Haddad Maia 43¢ $5,085 36h
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva SELL Yulia Starodubtseva 100¢ $11,916 36h
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari SELL Qinwen Zheng 100¢ $3,369 38h
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 41¢ $4,991 39h
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari SELL Qinwen Zheng 99¢ $5,007 39h
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Qinwen Zheng 35¢ $11 41h
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Qinwen Zheng 35¢ $2,992 41h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $2,912 2d
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 62¢ $7,617 2d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 54¢ $1,948 2d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 64¢ $4,508 2d
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt SELL Mattia Bellucci 100¢ $14,547 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 83 history records