Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:09:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9fd4…325c other 498 markets active 2h ago coverage 637d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$25,574 (-5%) realized −$26,388 · open +$814
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate58%279W / 200L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,083per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$23,284now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,397
7 days−$2,397
14 days−$2,120
30 days−$2,009
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 33% −$12,006
other 25% −$950
tech 12% −$8,596
crypto 11% −$1,919
culture 9% −$4,579
world 5% +$790
economics 3% +$773
sports 1% +$554
finance 0% −$190
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +12.8% +2.0% 75% 50% -33.0%
≤30d 18 -2.7% -12.0% 44% 28% -16.0%
≤90d 92 -1.8% -11.1% 62% 36% -18.4%
all 479 -7.7% -16.5% 58% 22% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 22% -14.2%
10% -24.5% 6% -22.4%
15% -31.8% 3% -29.9%
20% -38.5% 2% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$1,017) neutral
Persistence
early -11% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$111 vs −$289 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

637d coverage
Net worth$23,284
Realized−$26,388
Unrealized+$814
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses279 / 200
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions19
Markets (closed)479 / 498
History coverage637d
Avg bet$1,083
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 479 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $6,065 $6,056 −$9 (-0%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes 74¢ 77¢ $3,000 $3,130 +$130 (+4%)
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30? No 87¢ 97¢ $1,532 $1,702 +$170 (+11%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 84¢ $1,000 $1,190 +$190 (+19%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 81¢ 95¢ $1,000 $1,170 +$170 (+17%)
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 89¢ 97¢ $1,000 $1,095 +$95 (+10%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 90¢ 98¢ $997 $1,080 +$83 (+8%)
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 87¢ 94¢ $1,000 $1,076 +$76 (+8%)
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $1,000 $1,006 +$6 (+1%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 91¢ $1,000 $977 −$23 (-2%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 93¢ 92¢ $754 $750 −$4 (-1%)
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 60¢ $352 $681 +$329 (+94%)
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 83¢ 76¢ $624 $575 −$49 (-8%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 44¢ $662 $543 −$119 (-18%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 78¢ $500 $503 +$3 (+1%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $500 $497 −$3 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 40¢ $647 $454 −$193 (-30%)
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 79¢ $500 $451 −$49 (-10%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $337 $346 +$9 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $1,196 +$195 +16%
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 19 $5,815 −$3,315 -57%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $710 +$587 +83%
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $1,504 +$137 +9%
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $1,004 −$38 -4%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? Jun 06 $1,000 +$60 +6%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $2,336 −$45 -2%
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $1,004 −$9 -1%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $302 −$295 -98%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 06 $4,931 +$672 +14%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $400 −$23 -6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $1,010 −$44 -4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $931 −$30 -3%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 31 $1,562 +$208 +13%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Ju May 30 $1,500 +$183 +12%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid May 29 $1,000 −$154 -15%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? May 28 $1,017 −$151 -15%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 28 $1,005 +$54 +5%
Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1,000 +$111 +11%
Will Mumbai Indians win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 07 $1,500 +$318 +21%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 06 $1,139 +$148 +13%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam May 04 $6,108 −$5,049 -83%
Will Braga win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? May 04 $501 −$35 -7%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the May 01 $100 −$30 -30%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? May 01 $1,000 +$22 +2%
Iran leadership change by April 30? Apr 28 $500 +$47 +9%
Will MrBeast hit 119.5 billion views by April 30? Apr 23 $100 −$4 -4%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 20 Apr 23 $539 +$32 +6%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Apr 22 $500 +$5 +1%
Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Apr 22 $1,000 −$557 -56%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30? Apr 21 $2,160 −$551 -26%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 375M by May 1? Apr 21 $100 +$18 +18%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 21 $2,527 −$527 -21%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? Apr 21 $500 +$28 +6%
Will the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M)) win the most seat Apr 20 $50 +$15 +30%
Will Chennai Super Kings win the 2026 Indian Premier League? Apr 20 $10 −$4 -37%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 20 $1,607 +$175 +11%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? Apr 17 $792 −$379 -48%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $500 +$56 +11%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $502 +$38 +8%
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners Apr 14 $495 +$34 +7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? Apr 14 $500 +$20 +4%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Ap Apr 14 $1,000 +$133 +13%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Apr 14 $500 −$251 -50%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 14 $500 +$37 +7%
Will Bologna win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 14 $500 +$31 +6%
Will Tatiana Auguste win the by-election for the seat of Terrebone in Apr 14 $50 +$32 +64%
Will MrBeast hit 478 million subscribers by April 30? Apr 13 $1,000 +$79 +8%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 13 $100 +$58 +58%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 13 $100 +$43 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 77¢ $503 1h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $504 1h
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,391 1h
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 93¢ $756 1h
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL Yes $2 1h
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL Yes $283 1h
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026 BUY Yes 74¢ $3,039 5h
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $220 20h
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $352 20h
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $15 8d
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $3,784 8d
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 83¢ $627 8d
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $359 8d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 57¢ $655 8d
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 72¢ $1,642 8d
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 85¢ $192 13d
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 92¢ $1,002 13d
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 84¢ $966 13d
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 92¢ $501 13d
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 89¢ $1,003 13d
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 87¢ $1,004 13d
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 91¢ $1,003 13d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? SELL No 89¢ $1,060 13d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $2,291 13d
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 85¢ $1,004 13d
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 88¢ $995 13d
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $1,002 13d
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $1,004 13d
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $502 13d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 27¢ $344 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23,283.90 · official $23,288.28 (match) · 2126 history records