Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:04:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9fd3…0c9e crypto 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$57 (-4%) realized −$56 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate65%17W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$18
14 days−$177
30 days−$177
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$54
other 31% −$215
politics 23% +$80
crypto 4% −$10
sports 2% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +118.7% +97.9% 100% 100% +64.9%
≤30d 11 +25.4% +13.5% 55% 55% -68.1%
≤90d 26 +8.6% -1.7% 65% 54% -14.0%
all 26 +8.6% -1.7% 65% 54% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.7% 54% -14.0%
10% -11.1% 42% -22.3%
15% -19.7% 27% -29.8%
20% -27.6% 23% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$34 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized−$56
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses17 / 9
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage69d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $90 $89 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $1 +$2 +194%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $7 +$7 +93%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $14 +$10 +69%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on June 8? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
China PR vs. Thailand: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 10 $10 +$28 +276%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $5 +$3 +54%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Jun 07 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-03? Jun 07 $201 −$201 -100%
Will Andrea Martella win the 2026 Venice mayoral election? May 06 $58 +$10 +18%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 06 $66 −$15 -22%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 29 $152 +$21 +14%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 29 $230 +$66 +29%
Putin meets with Iranian officials by May 15? Apr 27 $88 −$47 -54%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 22 $54 +$19 +35%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? Apr 22 $30 +$12 +38%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in Ap Apr 22 $30 +$1 +4%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-04-17? Apr 18 $30 +$6 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Apr 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 13 $189 +$51 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Apr 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Apr 11 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Apr 11 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Apr 11 $8 +$2 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $90 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 59¢ $7 7d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 58¢ $7 7d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 51¢ $7 7d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 51¢ $5 10d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 46¢ $5 10d
China PR vs. Thailand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $5 11d
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? SELL Yes 88¢ $8 11d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 11d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 12d
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 13d
Will Andrea Martella win the 2026 Venice mayoral election? SELL Yes 81¢ $69 44d
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 38¢ $51 44d
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 81¢ $201 50d
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? SELL No 99¢ $173 51d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? SELL No 100¢ $153 51d
Putin meets with Iranian officials by May 15? SELL No $3 53d
Will Andrea Martella win the 2026 Venice mayoral election? BUY Yes 73¢ $38 54d
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? BUY No 93¢ $100 54d
Putin meets with Iranian officials by May 15? SELL No 30¢ $38 54d
Putin meets with Iranian officials by May 15? BUY No 32¢ $18 54d
Putin meets with Iranian officials by May 15? BUY No 22¢ $25 54d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? SELL No 97¢ $143 54d
Putin meets with Iranian officials by May 15? BUY No 52¢ $45 55d
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? BUY No 78¢ $52 57d
Will Andrea Martella win the 2026 Venice mayoral election? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 57d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? BUY No 87¢ $100 58d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? SELL Yes 98¢ $73 58d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.49 · official $89.49 (match) · 71 history records