Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:27:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
9F 0x9fcf…ccf0 sports 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$324 (+7%) realized +$326 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +72% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +50% what you keep after slip
Net edge+50%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate58%11W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$190per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$489
other 28% +$46
crypto 6% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+55.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +72.1% +55.7% 58% 53% +2.5%
≤30d 19 +72.1% +55.7% 58% 53% +2.5%
≤90d 19 +72.1% +55.7% 58% 53% +2.5%
all 19 +72.1% +55.7% 58% 53% +2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +55.7% 53% +2.5%
10% +40.8% 53% -7.3%
15% +27.2% 47% -16.3%
20% +14.7% 37% -24.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 43% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +72% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +154% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$177 vs −$177 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$326
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses11 / 8
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions2
Markets (closed)19 / 23
History coverage5d
Avg bet$190
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will Norw Jun 17 $102 +$244 +239%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $254 +$237 +93%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 +$115 +1116%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $305 +$317 +104%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$4 +9%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $252 +$121 +48%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $71 +$23 +32%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $203 +$205 +101%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $253 −$250 -99%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $505 −$500 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $302 +$109 +36%
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals Jun 14 $53 +$47 +90%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $254 −$20 -8%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $253 −$12 -5%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $457 +$521 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $507 −$500 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score AND Will England win on 2026- BUY 26¢ $102 18m
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $26 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 31¢ $255 12h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 51¢ $254 14h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 19h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $56 19h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $51 19h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 19h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 22h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 22h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will Norw BUY 29¢ $102 24h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $254 25h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 67¢ $252 40h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $71 45h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 59¢ $253 2d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 43¢ $102 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $203 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $505 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $302 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 SELL Over 43¢ $234 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $254 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 53¢ $242 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 54¢ $253 2d
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals BUY Yes 52¢ $53 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $457 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $507 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.00 · official $398.00 · 37 history records