Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:38:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
9F 0x9fcc…684a sports 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$276 (+26%) realized +$355 · open −$79
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%6W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$227
other 13% +$97
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+28.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +42.5% +28.9% 100% 100% +28.3%
≤30d 6 +42.5% +28.9% 100% 100% +28.3%
≤90d 6 +42.5% +28.9% 100% 100% +28.3%
all 6 +42.5% +28.9% 100% 100% +28.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +28.9% 100% +28.3%
10% +16.6% 100% +16.0%
15% +5.3% 67% +4.8%
20% -5.0% 33% -5.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +42% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +42% · $-wt +42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$67 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$355
Unrealized−$79
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses6 / 0
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage2d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Nongshim Esports Academy 63¢ 0¢ $79 $0 −$79 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $101 +$36 +36%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $134 +$97 +72%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $146 +$38 +26%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $71 +$25 +36%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $211 +$115 +54%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $302 +$92 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.06 · official $0.06 (match) · 16 history records