Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:47:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9fc9…630e other 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$618 (-8%) realized −$722 · open +$104
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%13W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$205per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$354now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% −$966
sports 9% +$369
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +13.0% +2.3% 37% 37% -18.4%
≤30d 35 +13.0% +2.3% 37% 37% -18.4%
≤90d 35 +13.0% +2.3% 37% 37% -18.4%
all 35 +13.0% +2.3% 37% 37% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.3% 37% -18.4%
10% -7.5% 37% -26.2%
15% -16.4% 34% -33.3%
20% -24.6% 26% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +35% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$228 vs −$166 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$354
Realized−$722
Unrealized+$104
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses13 / 22
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage6d
Avg bet$205
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 98¢ $250 $354 +$104 (+42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $31 +$242 +784%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 21 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $783 −$783 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $454 +$207 +46%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 20 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $457 −$457 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $415 +$178 +43%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $469 +$508 +108%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $453 +$139 +31%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $355 −$355 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $303 +$172 +57%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $153 −$153 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $71 +$157 +220%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $425 +$286 +67%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $806 −$806 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 +$240 +468%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $550 −$550 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $505 +$247 +49%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $17 −$8 -46%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $234 +$416 +177%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$155 +303%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$13 +249%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $252 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $272 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $783 6h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $661 6h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $26 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $454 9h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 11h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 11h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $593 23h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 69¢ $415 23h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $61 26h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $457 26h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $977 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $114 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $71 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $356 2d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $453 2d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $476 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $303 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 95¢ $229 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $71 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $355 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 26¢ $153 3d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $26 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $711 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $354.17 · official $354.17 (match) · 76 history records