Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:07:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9fbf…6d94 politics 52 markets active 1d ago coverage 320d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-1%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%17W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$20
14 days−$20
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% −$19
politics 27% $0
other 24% $0
economics 5% +$1
tech 5% $0
sports 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -12.0% -20.4% 50% 0% -15.9%
≤30d 14 -6.9% -15.8% 29% 0% -13.5%
≤90d 14 -6.9% -15.8% 29% 0% -13.5%
all 52 -2.6% -11.8% 33% 0% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 0% -10.9%
10% -20.3% 0% -19.4%
15% -28.0% 0% -27.2%
20% -35.0% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

320d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses17 / 35
Open positions0
Markets (closed)52 / 52
History coverage320d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 52 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $22 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $22 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $13 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $56 −$22 -38%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $105 +$1 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $32 +$1 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $20 $0 +2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 10 $40 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $44 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $44 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $40 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $2 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $8 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $29 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 12 $6 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Aug 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 04 $34 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 04 $5 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Aug 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 04 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 04 $1 $0 -4%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 04 $46 $0 +0%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Aug 03 $45 $0 +0%
2025 July hottest on record? Aug 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Aug 03 $45 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 03 $49 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 03 $6 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 02 $47 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 02 $12 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 02 $6 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 02 $13 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Aug 02 $6 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 02 $4 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $123K July 28–August 3? Aug 02 $1 $0 -36%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 01 $45 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 01 $45 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Aug 01 $51 $0 +0%
Israel strikes Syria by July 31? Aug 01 $56 +$1 +1%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 31 $61 $0 +0%
Will Cynthia Ní Mhurchú win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 31 $55 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $22 27h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $22 29h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $22 31h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $22 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 47¢ $13 40h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $13 44h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $21 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 19¢ $6 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 17¢ $4 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 17¢ $4 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 18¢ $14 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $11 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $10 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $21 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $31 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $5 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $6 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $39 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $3 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $0 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $10 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $22 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $25 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $20 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $40 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $7 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $33 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 146 history records