Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:46:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9fbd…d0e7 other 84 markets active 1h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$382 (-1%) realized −$415 · open +$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate53%51W / 46L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$390per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$1,910now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$70
7 days−$69
14 days−$43
30 days−$132
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$90
crypto 21% +$8
finance 7% +$1
sports 4% −$499
world 1% +$1
economics 1% +$2
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-33.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -36.0% -42.1% 20% 2% -10.3%
≤30d 59 -26.0% -33.0% 44% 2% -10.1%
≤90d 97 -27.0% -33.9% 53% 6% -11.8%
all 97 -27.0% -33.9% 53% 6% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.9% 6% -11.8%
10% -40.2% 6% -20.2%
15% -46.0% 4% -27.9%
20% -51.3% 2% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -25% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$20 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$1,910
Realized−$415
Unrealized+$33
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses51 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions48
Markets (closed)97 / 84
History coverage61d
Avg bet$390
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 48 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,683 $1,680 −$2 (-0%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $24 $28 +$3 (+14%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $17 $26 +$9 (+55%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $18 $25 +$7 (+40%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $21 $19 −$3 (-12%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 18¢ $2 $18 +$17 (+1007%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $23 $18 −$5 (-20%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $13 $16 +$3 (+26%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 13¢ $2 $13 +$12 (+695%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 11¢ $2 $11 +$9 (+551%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 10¢ $2 $10 +$9 (+527%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 10¢ $2 $10 +$8 (+503%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-26%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 7¢ $2 $7 +$5 (+299%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+239%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $2 $4 +$3 (+167%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-56%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-49%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-49%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-67%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-67%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-73%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-73%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $1,660 +$5 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $986 +$11 +1%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? Jun 15 $13 −$5 -43%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $1,030 +$10 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $1,791 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 14? Jun 13 $1,795 +$3 +0%
Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spac Jun 12 $12 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1,797 +$2 +0%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 11 $11 −$2 -18%
Will Mark Juncosa be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 11 $10 $0 -3%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 150 ( Jun 11 $4 −$2 -59%
Will Nuno Mendes score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $14 $0 -2%
Will Casemiro score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $13 $0 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $796 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $713 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1,792 +$9 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $457 +$8 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $349 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $479 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $1,054 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $399 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 05 $798 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $299 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $493 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,683 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $997 13h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $865 25h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $797 26h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $986 26h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,040 36h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $795 37h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1,030 37h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $131 39h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 39h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 39h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 39h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 40h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 40h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $7 40h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $23 40h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 40h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 40h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $83 40h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 40h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 40h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 40h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 40h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $7 40h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 40h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 40h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 40h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 40h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 40h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,909.77 · official $1,909.46 (match) · 413 history records