Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:11:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9fbb…77ee sports 1427 markets active 1h ago coverage 535d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Covers last 534d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$484 (-8%) realized −$508 · open +$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate48%679W / 727L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$20
14 days+$6
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$194
other 20% −$192
world 11% +$5
politics 8% −$16
culture 2% −$64
tech 2% +$11
crypto 1% −$22
finance 0% +$2
weather 0% −$14
economics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -10.6% -19.1% 43% 29% +10.9%
≤30d 44 -10.6% -19.1% 45% 39% -19.0%
≤90d 111 -15.3% -23.3% 41% 37% -14.1%
all 1406 -9.0% -17.7% 48% 42% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 42% -17.8%
10% -25.6% 37% -25.6%
15% -32.7% 32% -32.8%
20% -39.3% 26% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

535d coverage
Net worth$90
Realized−$508
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses679 / 727
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions15
Markets (closed)1406 / 1427
History coverage535d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 1406 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $11 $20 +$10 (+86%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $12 $14 +$2 (+21%)
Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27? Yes 7¢ 20¢ $4 $12 +$8 (+186%)
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 15¢ 24¢ $8 $12 +$4 (+58%)
Will Tom Thibodeau be the next head coach of the Dallas Mavericks? Yes 5¢ 14¢ $2 $7 +$5 (+190%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $3 $6 +$2 (+83%)
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Yes 46¢ 46¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 49¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$1 (-14%)
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Gabby Williams have the highest steals per game in the WNBA 2026 regular season? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 12¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+92%)
Will Kiki Iriafen have the highest rebounds per game in the WNBA 2026 regular season? Yes 10¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-60%)
Will Cameron Boozer be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Yes 13¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-90%)
Will Julie Emerson be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tim Cook say "M5" during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on June 8th? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will there be 1+ buzzer beaters during the 2026 Men's NBA Finals? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Latvija Pirmajā Vietā (LPV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvia Jun 15 $18 +$1 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $22 +$40 +181%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $11 +$16 +140%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Nothing Ever Happens: May Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elina Svitolina win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Sean Sweeney be the next Orlando Magic head coach? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 05 $5 −$4 -76%
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27? Jun 03 $20 +$1 +6%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $1 +$1 +94%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $6 +$4 +70%
Will Coco Gauff win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Canada win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? Jun 01 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Marta Kostyuk win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 31 $2 +$6 +318%
Will Czechia win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? May 29 $6 −$6 -100%
World Championships: Norway vs. Latvia May 29 $11 +$9 +86%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas May 29 $10 +$15 +152%
Will Norway win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? May 28 $10 +$2 +25%
Will Elena Rybakina win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Will "GOAT" be the top US Netflix movie this week? May 27 $13 −$13 -100%
Will "Black Phone 2" be the top US Netflix movie this week? May 27 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? May 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Dallas Wings vs. New York Liberty May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Washington Mystics vs. Seattle Storm May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals May 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 25 $19 −$19 -100%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta Dream May 25 $5 +$2 +44%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $5 +$4 +70%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $10 +$11 +117%
World Championships: Latvia vs. Austria May 22 $14 −$14 -100%
World Championships: Finland vs. USA May 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $10 +$5 +47%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 28.5 May 21 $4 +$6 +150%
World Championships: USA vs. Germany May 20 $7 $0 +6%
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? May 20 $4 +$1 +12%
Trump kiss by May 31? May 20 $21 +$23 +107%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 27.5 May 20 $13 +$12 +97%
World Championships: Sweden vs. Czechia May 19 $10 +$18 +180%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina May 16 $8 +$10 +131%
Tobias Harris: Rebounds O/U 6.5 May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros May 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? May 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Seattle Storm vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 167.5 May 14 $5 +$5 +100%
Wild vs. Avalanche May 14 $6 +$4 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $5 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $5 5h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Spread: France (- BUY 4¢ $5 5h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $18 17h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Spread: Spain (- BUY 10¢ $5 21h
Will Latvija Pirmajā Vietā (LPV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvia SELL Yes 29¢ $19 28h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) AND Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Will Uruguay win o BUY 18¢ $6 29h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $39 29h
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $11 42h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 43h
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) AND Will Spain win on BUY 5¢ $1 44h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 AND Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Côt BUY 4¢ $5 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $22 2d
Will there be 1+ buzzer beaters during the 2026 Men's NBA Finals? BUY No 1¢ $10 2d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND United States vs. Parag BUY 5¢ $2 3d
Will Tim Cook say "M5" during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on June 8th? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 7d
Will Latvija Pirmajā Vietā (LPV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvia BUY Yes 27¢ $1 9d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev BUY Jakub Mensik 23¢ $7 11d
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? SELL No 6¢ $1 11d
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 12d
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27? SELL Yes 34¢ $9 12d
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider SELL Diana Shnaider 12¢ $2 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 13d
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 6¢ $1 13d
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 13d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $12 13d
Will Latvija Pirmajā Vietā (LPV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvia BUY Yes 27¢ $1 13d
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk BUY Elina Svitolina 30¢ $4 14d
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 8¢ $10 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.03 · official $95.61 · 3500 history records