Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:45:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9fb4…b09a world 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate27%10W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 75% −$2
other 21% −$3
sports 1% $0
weather 1% $0
culture 1% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -4.3% -13.4% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 13 -3.3% -12.5% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 23 -1.6% -11.0% 17% 4% -10.0%
all 37 -6.4% -15.3% 27% 3% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 3% -10.0%
10% -23.4% 0% -18.6%
15% -30.8% 0% -26.5%
20% -37.6% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses10 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage466d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 23 $37 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $41 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $42 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $3 $0 -3%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $5 −$1 -32%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 21 $123 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $43 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $9 −$1 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 27 $3 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $45 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $41 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $109 −$10 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $44 +$7 +17%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $25 −$3 -11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 23 $40 +$4 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 21 $24 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $40 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 20 $46 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $46 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $29 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 19 $46 $0 -1%
Will Romania's court annul the presidential election? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $13 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $11 $0 +2%
Will the AFD be part of the next German government? May 07 $0 $0 -100%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 27 $2 $0 +2%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 16 $12 $0 +1%
Will Susan Crawford win by 8-10%? Apr 16 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 30 $13 $0 -0%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 28 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Mar 27 $2 $0 -9%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on March 20? Mar 22 $13 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? Mar 20 $14 +$1 +5%
Will 'Novocaine' gross more than 11m on opening weekend? Mar 15 $14 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 4h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $41 6h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $41 9h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $16 13h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $25 13h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 47¢ $42 15h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 89¢ $3 45h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $41 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $41 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 92¢ $3 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $43 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $43 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $1 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $39 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $38 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 24¢ $9 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 26¢ $1 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 26¢ $9 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $43 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $44 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $4 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $36 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 115 history records