Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:51:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9fb4…ddac other 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 484d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate32%17W / 36L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% −$4
other 16% $0
politics 14% $0
finance 7% +$4
economics 4% $0
culture 2% $0
tech 2% $0
sports 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
weather 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 11 -1.7% -11.1% 27% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 11 -1.7% -11.1% 27% 0% -9.9%
all 53 -0.2% -9.7% 32% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 2% -9.5%
10% -18.4% 2% -18.1%
15% -26.3% 2% -26.0%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 84% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

484d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses17 / 36
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage484d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 53 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $46 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $41 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $45 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 25 $44 −$2 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $5 $0 -5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $50 −$2 -5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $41 +$4 +9%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $47 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $2 $0 -4%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $7 −$1 -11%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 17 $6 −$1 -9%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jul 26 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jul 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 26 $7 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Jul 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 25% on August 15? Jul 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Jul 25 $7 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 25 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 24 $7 $0 -1%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 07 $2 $0 -1%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 06 $7 $0 -2%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 06 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 90–104 times July 4–11? Jul 06 $7 $0 +2%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 06 $7 $0 +0%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jul 05 $7 $0 -0%
Will Al-Hilal win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0% and -1%? Jul 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will the June 2025 unemployment rate be ≥4.5%? Jul 02 $3 $0 -9%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August Jul 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 02 $9 $0 +0%
U.S. refuels Israeli jets for strikes on Iran before July? Jul 01 $9 $0 -2%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 27 $9 $0 -2%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 Jun 05 $8 $0 +3%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Jun 05 $1 $0 -17%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $6 $0 +5%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $4 $0 +1%
Will 'Lilo & Stich' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 15 $6 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $46 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $46 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 97¢ $5 22d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $37 22d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 96¢ $41 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $45 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $45 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 65¢ $9 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 65¢ $33 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 68¢ $44 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 39¢ $5 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $5 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 46¢ $13 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 46¢ $35 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 48¢ $50 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 24d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $47 24d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $47 24d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $20 24d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $20 24d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes $1 25d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes $1 25d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes $2 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $31 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $31 25d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 77¢ $3 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 157 history records