Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:49:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9fb3…163f sports 16 markets active 2d ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$25 (-8%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%4W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$29
14 days−$31
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$6
other 7% −$16
crypto 3% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -22.3% -29.7% 10% 10% -19.9%
≤30d 12 -19.9% -27.5% 8% 8% -19.6%
≤90d 12 -19.9% -27.5% 8% 8% -19.6%
all 16 -9.2% -17.9% 25% 25% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 25% -18.5%
10% -25.7% 25% -26.3%
15% -32.9% 25% -33.5%
20% -39.5% 19% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
15.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses4 / 12
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage113d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $10 +$6 +63%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$7 -69%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$6 -62%
Switzerland to win the second half? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $4 −$1 -13%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $108 −$7 -6%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $1 $0 -21%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $1 $0 -2%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $18 −$1 -8%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $77 −$3 -4%
T20 Blast: Essex vs Kent Jun 09 $11 −$1 -5%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $21 −$2 -11%
UFC Fight Night: Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez (Middleweight, Feb 22 $4 −$4 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Ode' Osbourne vs. Alibi Idiris (Flyweight, Prelims) Feb 22 $1 +$1 +75%
UFC Fight Night: Dan Ige vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Main Car Feb 22 $4 +$2 +43%
UFC Fight Night: Chidi Njokuani vs. Carlos Leal (Welterweight, Prelims Feb 22 $4 +$3 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Hurricanes 88¢ $17 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 2d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 53¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 23¢ $4 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 3d
Switzerland to win the second half? BUY Yes 75¢ $10 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand SELL New Zealand 84¢ $2 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand BUY New Zealand 90¢ $1 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand BUY New Zealand 90¢ $1 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand SELL West Indies 14¢ $1 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand SELL West Indies 17¢ $0 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand SELL West Indies 17¢ $0 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand SELL West Indies 20¢ $1 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand SELL West Indies 20¢ $0 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand BUY West Indies 20¢ $1 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand BUY West Indies 20¢ $1 3d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 99¢ $1 3d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 98¢ $1 3d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 99¢ $0 3d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 99¢ $1 3d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 99¢ $1 3d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 99¢ $1 3d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 99¢ $1 3d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 97¢ $0 3d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 97¢ $1 3d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 97¢ $1 3d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 97¢ $1 3d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 97¢ $1 3d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 97¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 794 history records