Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:09:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9faf…7d1f sports 455 markets active 0h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$25 (-2%) realized −$23 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%190W / 262L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$12
14 days−$29
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$3
other 33% −$51
world 4% +$12
culture 0% −$1
finance 0% −$2
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +9.1% -1.3% 50% 50% -15.0%
≤30d 227 +0.4% -9.1% 50% 50% -9.8%
≤90d 446 -2.5% -11.8% 42% 42% -14.2%
all 452 -1.6% -11.0% 42% 42% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 42% -12.8%
10% -19.5% 41% -21.1%
15% -27.3% 37% -28.8%
20% -34.4% 29% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$23
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses190 / 262
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions3
Markets (closed)452 / 455
History coverage111d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 452 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Nottingham 2: Remy Bertola vs Yibing Wu Yibing Wu 58¢ 48¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-17%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 115 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $10 +$1 +12%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $21 −$21 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -90%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $6 −$3 -49%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 +$1 +70%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $3 +$1 +31%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $5 +$2 +48%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $34 +$6 +16%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $12 $0 -2%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +123%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $16 −$3 -16%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -88%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $4 +$3 +65%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$6 +549%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $3 +$1 +34%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 +$2 +30%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $4 +$3 +76%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $6 −$1 -19%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $2 $0 -9%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 14 $6 +$4 +64%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1 +$1 +50%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 +$2 +97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $3 +$1 +38%
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -77%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $3 +$2 +50%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$4 +210%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $2 +$2 +101%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $1 $0 +40%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Belarus vs. Burkina Faso: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $2 +$6 +276%
DR Congo vs. Chile: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $2 +$1 +60%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -79%
Armenia vs. Moldova: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $3 +$3 +86%
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -81%
Will Tajikistan vs. India end in a draw? Jun 09 $1 +$2 +169%
Ethiopia vs. Malawi: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $1 $0 +39%
Tajikistan vs. India: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $1 $0 -11%
DR Congo vs. Chile: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $2 −$2 -99%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham 2: Remy Bertola vs Yibing Wu BUY Yibing Wu 49¢ $2 2m
Nottingham 2: Remy Bertola vs Yibing Wu SELL Remy Bertola 49¢ $1 3m
Nottingham 2: Remy Bertola vs Yibing Wu BUY Remy Bertola 53¢ $1 3m
Nottingham 2: Remy Bertola vs Yibing Wu BUY Yibing Wu 57¢ $5 4m
Nottingham 2: Remy Bertola vs Yibing Wu BUY Yibing Wu 63¢ $5 6m
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm SELL Martin Damm 57¢ $11 2h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm BUY Martin Damm 43¢ $5 3h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm BUY Martin Damm 58¢ $5 3h
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 57¢ $1 3h
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 59¢ $5 4h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 4h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 4h
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 57¢ $15 4h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 15h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $0 17h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 17h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score SELL No 32¢ $3 18h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 71¢ $1 18h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $5 19h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $3 19h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 20h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $2 20h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 76¢ $3 22h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 23h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 46¢ $3 23h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 100¢ $7 26h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 67¢ $5 26h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 75¢ $1 36h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 75¢ $10 36h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 79¢ $15 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.21 · official $14.83 (match) · 876 history records