Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:07:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
9F 0x9fad…5a9f sports 261 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 21d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (152 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$257,343 (+66%) realized +$257,782 · open −$439
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%109W / 133L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,487per market
Trades / day152.3pace
Fees−$5,363est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$23,598now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 21d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$5,948
other 8% +$4,463
world 2% −$2,351
crypto 1% +$4,600
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (152 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 180 -18.9% -26.6% 36% 36% -27.6%
≤30d 242 +1.3% -8.4% 45% 45% -9.0%
≤90d 242 +1.3% -8.4% 45% 45% -9.0%
all 242 +1.3% -8.4% 45% 45% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover152.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.4% 45% -9.0%
10% -17.1% 45% -17.7%
15% ← realistic here -25.1% 44% -25.7%
20% -32.5% 43% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$1,944) neutral
Persistence
early -15% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
12.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,542 vs −$1,255 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$23,598
Realized+$257,782
Unrealized−$439
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses109 / 133
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$5,363
Open positions19
Markets (closed)242 / 261
History coverage21d ⚠
Avg bet$1,487
Trades / day152.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 242 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 42¢ 100¢ $2,100 $4,998 +$2,898 (+138%)
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Boston Red Sox 46¢ 47¢ $2,300 $2,350 +$50 (+2%)
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims) Karol Rosa 50¢ 50¢ $2,000 $2,020 +$20 (+1%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 51¢ 48¢ $1,923 $1,842 −$81 (-4%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Minnesota Twins 45¢ 46¢ $1,800 $1,820 +$20 (+1%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Tunisia 63¢ 60¢ $1,890 $1,815 −$75 (-4%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Athletics 61¢ 60¢ $1,830 $1,815 −$15 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? No 36¢ 34¢ $1,800 $1,675 −$125 (-7%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Baltimore Orioles 32¢ 32¢ $1,422 $1,444 +$22 (+2%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 45¢ 44¢ $1,350 $1,305 −$45 (-3%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 45¢ 67¢ $447 $670 +$223 (+50%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Over 20¢ 20¢ $600 $585 −$15 (-2%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Under 38¢ 42¢ $359 $402 +$43 (+12%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Under 61¢ 72¢ $302 $354 +$52 (+17%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Under 47¢ 20¢ $537 $229 −$309 (-57%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs 54¢ 8¢ $1,620 $226 −$1,394 (-86%)
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) Chicago White Sox 31¢ 54¢ $19 $34 +$14 (+74%)
O/U 2.5 Rounds Under 45¢ 43¢ $13 $13 −$1 (-4%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 51¢ 0¢ $1,724 $2 −$1,722 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 71 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 20 $1,170 +$1,830 +156%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $2,804 +$2,196 +78%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2,280 +$1,720 +75%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1,740 +$1,260 +72%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $510 +$2,490 +488%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $2,124 +$3,876 +182%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $243 +$2,757 +1135%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emiliana Arango vs Alycia Parks Jun 20 $3 +$5 +170%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $2,130 +$870 +41%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $3,794 +$1,206 +32%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $1,379 −$1,379 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $1,650 +$1,350 +82%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 20 $1,069 −$1,069 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $820 −$820 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $1,564 −$1,562 -100%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $1,188 −$1,170 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 20 $2,902 −$2,008 -69%
Nottingham Open: Emma Navarro vs Viktorija Golubic Jun 20 $97 −$95 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $430 +$335 +78%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 20 $3,050 +$1,950 +64%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 20 $1,920 +$2,080 +108%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $2,150 +$1,850 +86%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $128 +$115 +90%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 20 $189 +$131 +70%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $2,253 +$2,747 +122%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $2,250 −$2,250 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $2,133 −$2,120 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 19 $2,400 −$2,400 -100%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $1,400 +$2,600 +186%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $1,000 −$999 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2,350 +$2,650 +113%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $2,600 +$2,400 +92%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $2,750 −$2,750 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 19 $3,865 −$3,820 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $1,680 +$1,320 +79%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $1,715 +$3,285 +192%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $2,337 +$1,663 +71%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,860 +$1,140 +61%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $2,626 +$2,961 +113%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $2,044 +$1,956 +96%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 18 $1,880 −$1,880 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $2,475 −$2,450 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $2,550 −$2,550 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $727 −$727 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $981 +$905 +92%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2,080 −$2,080 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1,800 −$1,800 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 45¢ $14 13m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 32¢ $106 22m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 32¢ $157 24m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $388 24m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $60 24m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 32¢ $1 24m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 32¢ $58 24m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $369 39m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $4 39m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $172 42m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $73 42m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $1 42m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $501 43m
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 20¢ $597 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 20¢ $0 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 20¢ $1 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 20¢ $0 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 20¢ $0 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 20¢ $0 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 20¢ $1 2h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 20¢ $0 3h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 38¢ $439 3h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 38¢ $32 3h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 38¢ $6 3h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 38¢ $6 3h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 38¢ $61 3h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 38¢ $1 3h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 38¢ $1 3h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 38¢ $1 3h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 38¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23,597.79 · official $23,569.59 (match) · 3500 history records