Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:38:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9fab…8aa2 other 128 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$106 (-1%) realized −$106 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%13W / 114L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$154per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$69
14 days−$77
30 days−$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 25% −$16
other 23% −$18
sports 23% −$64
crypto 10% +$2
finance 6% −$7
culture 5% −$5
economics 5% −$2
world 2% −$9
tech 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -4.9% -14.0% 4% 0% -11.8%
≤30d 64 -2.2% -11.5% 6% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 115 -1.3% -10.7% 9% 0% -10.1%
all 127 -1.2% -10.6% 10% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 0% -10.1%
10% -19.2% 0% -18.7%
15% -27.0% 0% -26.5%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$106
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses13 / 114
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)127 / 128
History coverage99d
Avg bet$154
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $111 −$1 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 17 $67 −$1 -2%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $213 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $301 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 16 $52 −$1 -2%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $104 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $258 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 15 $107 −$2 -2%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $475 −$1 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 14 $47 −$1 -2%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $129 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $251 $0 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 13 $61 $0 -1%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $90 $0 -0%
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $27 $0 +1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 12 $61 $0 -1%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 12 $43 $0 -0%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $68 −$2 -3%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $9 $0 -1%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $90 −$1 -1%
Will the game go to extra innings?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $53 −$53 -99%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 10 $50 $0 -1%
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 10 $44 $0 -1%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $55 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 09 $96 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $259 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $102 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $49 −$1 -2%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $10 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $111 −$1 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $39 $0 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $118 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $61 $0 -1%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $39 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $60 $0 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $224 −$3 -1%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 03 $52 $0 -1%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 02 $56 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $55 $0 +0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $54 $0 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $41 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $206 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $61 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $97 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $498 −$1 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 30 $104 $0 -0%
Will Learner Tien win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $50 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $173 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $45 1h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $62 1h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $62 6h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 94¢ $10 7h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $10 14h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $54 15h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $54 21h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $51 21h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $52 29h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 90¢ $51 30h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 91¢ $52 36h
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 95¢ $58 37h
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 95¢ $58 42h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $55 42h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $56 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $48 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $26 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $22 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 94¢ $41 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $42 2d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $50 2d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $50 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $46 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $47 3d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $65 3d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $65 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $51 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $52 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $53 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $53 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.42 · official $45.42 (match) · 487 history records