Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:01:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
9F 0x9fa8…b6d7 sports 1325 markets active 1h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$556 (+3%) realized +$556 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate89%1183W / 142L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day20.5pace
Fees−$61est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$20
14 days+$20
30 days−$388
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$322
other 32% +$179
world 0% +$1
weather 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +81.0% +63.8% 96% 59% -2.1%
≤30d 96 +21.9% +10.3% 88% 49% -22.8%
≤90d 1325 +3.1% -6.8% 89% 42% -7.2%
all 1325 +3.1% -6.8% 89% 42% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.8% 42% -7.2%
10% ← realistic here -15.7% 12% -16.1%
15% -23.8% 3% -24.2%
20% -31.3% 1% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$12 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$556
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses1183 / 142
Est. fees paid−$61
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1325 / 1325
History coverage87d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day20.5
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1325 Trades
no open positions (54 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Targu Mures: Luca Castelnuovo vs Franco Agamenone Jun 22 $2 $0 +6%
Piracicaba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Alex Hernandez Jun 22 $10 +$2 +21%
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens Jun 22 $102 +$5 +5%
Targu Mures: Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg vs Gabriel Ghetu Jun 22 $2 $0 +18%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Jaume Munar Jun 22 $2 $0 +5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2 $0 +12%
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Mayar Sherif Jun 21 $2 $0 +11%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jun 21 $2 $0 +12%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Elsa Jacquemot Jun 21 $2 $0 +7%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro Jun 21 $1 $0 +6%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Felix Gill vs Marco Trungelliti Jun 20 $2 $0 +24%
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 20 $12 +$4 +33%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Adam Walton vs Federico Bondiol Jun 20 $5 $0 +6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 $0 +12%
Asuncion 2: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Juan Estevez Jun 19 $2 $0 +14%
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Luca Van Assche Jun 19 $2 $0 +18%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 19 $5 $0 +4%
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mayar Sherif Jun 19 $2 $0 +13%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $2 $0 +12%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $42 +$3 +6%
Nottingham Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Emma Navarro Jun 19 $2 $0 +5%
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Otto Virtanen Jun 18 $22 +$3 +12%
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Carole Monnet Jun 18 $2 $0 +11%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 +$1 +26%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $2 −$2 -99%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 18 $5 $0 +7%
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Hernan Casanova Jun 17 $2 $0 +12%
Roland Garros WTA: Hailey Baptiste vs Xiyu Wang May 27 $247 −$245 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Mariano Navone vs Jakub Mensik May 27 $223 −$210 -94%
Chisinau: Sumit Nagal vs Zdenek Kolar May 27 $101 −$100 -98%
Centurion: Arda Azkara vs Eliakim Coulibaly May 27 $10 +$2 +20%
Roland Garros ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Andrey Rublev May 27 $202 +$58 +29%
Roland Garros WTA: Tamara Korpatsch vs Xinyu Wang May 27 $100 +$7 +7%
Roland Garros WTA: Jelena Ostapenko vs Magda Linette May 27 $51 −$50 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Federico Cina vs Jesper de Jong May 27 $10 +$1 +10%
Centurion: Harold Mayot vs Semen Pankin May 27 $10 +$1 +8%
Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Marco Trungelliti May 27 $10 +$1 +6%
Vicenza: Stefano Travaglia vs Henri Squire May 27 $101 +$4 +4%
Centurion: Calvin Hemery vs Orel Kimhi May 27 $10 −$10 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniel Altmaier May 26 $60 +$3 +5%
Roland Garros WTA: Simona Waltert vs Katerina Siniakova May 26 $8 +$2 +27%
Kosice: Jay Clarke vs Milos Karol May 26 $110 +$2 +2%
Vicenza: Jacopo Vasami vs Giorgio Tabacco May 26 $10 +$1 +11%
Roland Garros WTA: Linda Noskova vs Maria Sakkari May 26 $10 +$1 +12%
Roland Garros ATP: Martin Landaluce vs Juan Carlos Prado May 26 $10 +$1 +8%
Chisinau: Daniel Dutra da Silva vs Liam Broady May 26 $201 +$44 +22%
Vicenza: Stefano Travaglia vs Alejandro Moro Canas May 26 $10 $0 +4%
Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Tabilo vs Kamil Majchrzak May 26 $10 $0 +4%
Chisinau: Sumit Nagal vs Sergey Fomin May 26 $10 +$2 +18%
Kosice: Pedro Sakamoto vs Stefan Dostanic May 26 $10 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Targu Mures: Luca Castelnuovo vs Franco Agamenone SELL Franco Agamenone 95¢ $2 1h
Piracicaba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Alex Hernandez SELL Juan Bautista Torres 92¢ $12 1h
Piracicaba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Alex Hernandez BUY Juan Bautista Torres 75¢ $10 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens BUY Elise Mertens 95¢ $100 1h
Targu Mures: Luca Castelnuovo vs Franco Agamenone BUY Franco Agamenone 89¢ $2 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Jaume Munar BUY Zizou Bergs 95¢ $2 1h
Targu Mures: Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg vs Gabriel Ghetu BUY Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg 84¢ $2 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens BUY Elise Mertens 93¢ $2 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 89¢ $2 2h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Linda Noskova 89¢ $2 27h
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Mayar Sherif BUY Mayar Sherif 90¢ $2 27h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro SELL Emma Navarro 65¢ $1 31h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 60¢ $1 31h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Elsa Jacquemot BUY Zeynep Sonmez 93¢ $2 31h
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Christopher O'Connell SELL Otto Virtanen 52¢ $14 2d
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Christopher O'Connell BUY Otto Virtanen 37¢ $5 2d
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Christopher O'Connell SELL Christopher OConnell 63¢ $1 2d
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Christopher O'Connell BUY Otto Virtanen 36¢ $5 2d
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Christopher O'Connell BUY Christopher OConnell 93¢ $2 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Felix Gill vs Marco Trungelliti BUY Marco Trungelliti 80¢ $2 2d
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Adam Walton vs Federico Bondiol BUY Adam Walton 94¢ $5 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $2 3d
Asuncion 2: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Juan Estevez BUY Juan Estevez 88¢ $2 3d
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Luca Van Assche BUY Luca Van Assche 84¢ $2 3d
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Ugo Humbert 96¢ $5 3d
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mayar Sherif BUY Mayar Sherif 88¢ $2 3d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 95¢ $40 3d
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 89¢ $2 3d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 77¢ $2 3d
Nottingham Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 95¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2970 history records