Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:05:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9fa7…014f other 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$45 (+9%) realized +$44 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%11W / 18L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$131now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days+$29
14 days+$35
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% +$51
sports 26% +$5
crypto 4% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-28.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -22.9% -30.3% 36% 36% -2.2%
≤30d 29 -21.1% -28.6% 38% 38% -1.2%
≤90d 29 -21.1% -28.6% 38% 38% -1.2%
all 29 -21.1% -28.6% 38% 38% -1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.6% 38% -1.2%
10% -35.5% 38% -10.6%
15% -41.7% 31% -19.3%
20% -47.4% 31% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -46% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$8 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$131
Realized+$44
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses11 / 18
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)29 / 34
History coverage8d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 75¢ 79¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+5%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Ecuador 67¢ 66¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Over 59¢ 58¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$17 +82%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $5 −$2 -40%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$12 +61%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$21 +104%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$21 +104%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +29%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$27 +133%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$21 +104%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $2 $0 -6%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $4 −$3 -65%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$11 +54%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $30 +$16 +52%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$8 -78%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$27 +131%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$6 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 67¢ $20 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 7h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 8h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $20 21h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 54¢ $20 25h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 25h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 25h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 25h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 25h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 25h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 47h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $10 47h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $20 47h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $20 47h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 47h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? SELL Yes 11¢ $7 2d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 2d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 75¢ $51 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $20 3d
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $130.96 · official $130.96 (match) · 64 history records