Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:35:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9fa2…b529 crypto 229 markets active 3d ago coverage 7d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$21 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%114W / 114L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day58.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$57
14 days−$126
30 days−$126
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$90
other 6% −$24
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (58 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-24.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 156 -10.1% -18.7% 54% 52% -14.5%
≤30d 228 -16.7% -24.6% 50% 48% -18.2%
≤90d 228 -16.7% -24.6% 50% 48% -18.2%
all 228 -16.7% -24.6% 50% 48% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover58.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.6% 48% -18.2%
10% ← realistic here -31.9% 43% -26.0%
15% -38.4% 34% -33.2%
20% -44.5% 25% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses114 / 114
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)228 / 229
History coverage7d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day58.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 228 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $31 $43 +$12 (+37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 95 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$7 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +21%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $31 −$5 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$4 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 11 $11 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$4 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $7 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$5 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$3 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 11 $13 +$6 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $11 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 11 $7 +$10 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 11 $13 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$7 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 11 $13 +$9 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $32 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 5d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.16 · official $43.16 (match) · 454 history records