Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:27:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9fa2…601b crypto 1175 markets active 0h ago coverage 64d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 64d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$638 (-15%) realized −$638 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate42%490W / 685L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day35.6pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$35
14 days−$61
30 days−$126
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$435
other 8% −$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 -14.4% -22.6% 44% 22% -20.8%
≤30d 493 -8.2% -17.0% 46% 42% -17.2%
≤90d 1175 -15.5% -23.6% 42% 35% -20.9%
all 1175 -15.5% -23.6% 42% 35% -20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.6% 35% -20.9%
10% ← realistic here -30.9% 31% -28.5%
15% -37.6% 29% -35.4%
20% -43.7% 27% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$638
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses490 / 685
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1175 / 1175
History coverage64d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day35.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1175 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records