Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:53:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9F 0x9fa0…253c sports 119 markets active 2h ago coverage 621d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6,288 (-6%) realized −$5,832 · open −$456
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate56%65W / 52L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$956per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$881est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,967
7 days−$732
14 days+$6,514
30 days+$9,719
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$2,639
other 9% −$4,404
politics 1% +$173
economics 1% −$289
world 0% −$292
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -14.0% -22.2% 50% 50% -11.3%
≤30d 73 +2.1% -7.7% 62% 60% +1.6%
≤90d 73 +2.1% -7.7% 62% 60% +1.6%
all 117 -3.5% -12.7% 56% 54% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 54% -15.1%
10% -21.1% 50% -23.2%
15% -28.7% 45% -30.7%
20% -35.7% 37% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$1,513) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$548 vs −$820 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

621d coverage
Net worth$120
Realized−$5,832
Unrealized−$456
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses65 / 52
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$881
Open positions2
Markets (closed)117 / 119
History coverage621d
Avg bet$956
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs 9z 52¢ 22¢ $283 $120 −$163 (-58%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner FURIA 42¢ 0¢ $293 $0 −$293 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $1,000 −$977 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $1,005 −$990 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1,020 −$1,007 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,998 −$978 -49%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $220 −$220 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 15 $163 −$163 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1,006 −$1,006 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $3,778 −$3,778 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,035 +$963 +93%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $3,576 +$2,032 +57%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2,007 +$1,569 +78%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,055 +$952 +90%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,073 −$354 -33%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $3,184 +$1,889 +59%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2,531 +$650 +26%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,285 +$1,249 +97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $909 +$377 +41%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $469 −$469 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1,515 −$1,515 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $2,268 −$2,268 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $2,720 +$1,059 +39%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,950 +$770 +40%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $997 +$953 +96%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $994 +$521 +52%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $29 +$15 +50%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $2,210 +$1,037 +47%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1,652 +$561 +34%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $983 +$669 +68%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $701 −$701 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 10 $163 −$163 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $207 −$207 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 10 $1,494 −$1,494 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $193 −$193 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $23 −$23 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $627 −$627 -100%
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs BASEMENT BOYS - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $2,055 −$2,055 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $750 −$750 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $3,435 +$2,534 +74%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $23 +$16 +70%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $926 +$613 +66%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $2,097 +$753 +36%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $20 +$20 +97%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $28 −$21 -78%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $2,017 +$82 +4%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $1,704 +$313 +18%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $968 +$736 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 52¢ $287 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 42¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 42¢ $297 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 20¢ $5 5h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 20¢ $995 5h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 51¢ $3 6h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 50¢ $1,002 6h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $1,017 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 32¢ $1,020 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 63¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 62¢ $1,993 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $1,998 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 51¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 51¢ $1,032 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 61¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 62¢ $1,004 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 24¢ $163 4d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 100¢ $5,608 4d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 63¢ $8 4d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 63¢ $3,568 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $3,576 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $29 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $23 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $55 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $56 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $293 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $13 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $896 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.89 · official $119.89 (match) · 503 history records