Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:25:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
9F 0x9f98…ce6d other 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 615d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$149 (+1%) realized +$149 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate30%18W / 43L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$385per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$137now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$14
14 days+$14
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 58% −$14
politics 21% −$20
other 18% +$7
crypto 2% +$1
sports 1% +$168
tech 0% +$4
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)+1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +66.9% +51.0% 50% 50% +24.2%
≤30d 15 +11.7% +1.1% 27% 13% -8.2%
≤90d 48 +16.0% +5.0% 33% 25% -7.0%
all 61 +12.5% +1.8% 30% 20% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.8% 20% -9.0%
10% -8.0% 20% -17.7%
15% -16.9% 18% -25.6%
20% -25.0% 16% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$1 · ×9.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.9 per $1 lost it wins $3.9
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

615d coverage
Net worth$137
Realized+$149
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses18 / 43
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)61 / 62
History coverage615d
Avg bet$385
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? No 100¢ 99¢ $137 $137 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $10 +$14 +134%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $26 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $36 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $43 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $40 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 05 $41 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? Jun 05 $119 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $430 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $43 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 26 $29 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $36 $0 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $18 +$8 +44%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 21 $25 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $45 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 19 $451 $0 -0%
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 18 $217 $0 -0%
Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves May 18 $14 +$10 +67%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $210 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $201 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $205 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $195 $0 -0%
Will Jack Draper win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 01 $204 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $202 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $412 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $205 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 25 $420 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $418 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $204 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 24 $214 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $195 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $195 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 15 $212 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $196 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $201 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $199 $0 -0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $15 +$12 +79%
Bucks vs. Nets Apr 08 $9 +$11 +124%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 07 $16 +$11 +64%
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch? Apr 06 $22 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? Apr 06 $44 $0 +1%
76ers vs. Heat Apr 06 $21 +$25 +121%
Stars vs. Bruins Apr 06 $32 +$36 +113%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Mar 30 $29 +$18 +64%
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougars Mar 27 $41 +$27 +67%
Pelicans vs. Knicks Mar 26 $21 +$6 +30%
St. John's Red Storm vs. Kansas Jayhawks Mar 24 $20 +$13 +63%
Will Solana reach $170 in February? Mar 05 $84 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 09 $80 +$4 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $137 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 42¢ $10 2d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $26 4d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $26 4d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 10d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 10d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $43 11d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $43 12d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $40 13d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 13d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $26 20d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 20d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $43 21d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $43 22d
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $41 22d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $29 23d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 23d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $36 26d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 26d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $25 27d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $25 27d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 69¢ $18 27d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $45 28d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $45 28d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $119 29d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $41 29d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $41 29d
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $216 30d
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $217 30d
Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 59¢ $14 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $137.17 · official $137.24 (match) · 352 history records