Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:32:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9F 0x9f95…e2bf crypto 51 markets active 0h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-0%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate53%27W / 24L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$20
14 days−$22
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 58% −$23
economics 32% −$2
world 8% −$1
other 1% $0
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +2.2% -7.5% 50% 25% -17.0%
≤30d 11 -30.8% -37.4% 45% 27% -18.4%
≤90d 51 +2.5% -7.3% 53% 43% -9.9%
all 51 +2.5% -7.3% 53% 43% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 43% -9.9%
10% -16.2% 31% -18.5%
15% -24.3% 22% -26.4%
20% -31.7% 16% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +14% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses27 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)51 / 51
History coverage85d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 51 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in Jun 26 $92 $0 -0%
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 26 $146 −$20 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 22 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 21 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 21 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 15 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 15 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 13 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 13 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 09 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 09 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 09 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 09 $1 +$1 +62%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $29 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 29 $14 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Apr 28 $1 $0 +5%
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 23 $15 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $15 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 20 $415 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 20 $15 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Apr 10 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Apr 10 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Apr 10 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Apr 10 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Apr 10 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Apr 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Apr 09 $1 $0 +12%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 09 $1,619 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $538 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Apr 09 $1 $0 +42%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 09 $1,079 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Apr 08 $2 $0 +11%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Apr 08 $537 −$1 -0%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? Apr 08 $538 −$1 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $1,082 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Apr 03 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Apr 03 $2 +$1 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in SELL No 60¢ $41 5m
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in SELL No 59¢ $9 1h
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in BUY No 59¢ $42 1h
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in SELL No 59¢ $29 1h
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in SELL No 59¢ $12 1h
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in BUY No 58¢ $51 1h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 40¢ $50 4h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 53¢ $6 6h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 53¢ $7 6h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 53¢ $16 6h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 53¢ $16 6h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 53¢ $53 7h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 53¢ $53 7h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 52¢ $70 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 137 history records