Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:39:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
9F 0x9f91…f7fc world 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 96d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$71 (-2%) realized −$75 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate40%4W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$259per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$374now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$3
30 days+$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% +$1
other 33% +$34
sports 4% −$107
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 4 +1.6% -8.1% 50% 0% -7.7%
≤90d 10 -10.0% -18.6% 40% 0% -12.3%
all 10 -10.0% -18.6% 40% 0% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 0% -12.3%
10% -26.4% 0% -20.7%
15% -33.5% 0% -28.3%
20% -40.0% 0% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$37 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$374
Realized−$75
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses4 / 6
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage96d
Avg bet$259
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $370 $374 +$4 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31? Jun 28 $372 $0 +0%
Russia coup attempt in 2026? Jun 19 $247 −$3 -1%
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? Jun 02 $447 +$33 +7%
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $448 $0 +0%
Spread: Vålerenga Fotball (-2.5) May 25 $106 −$106 -100%
Will Russia enter Stinky by May 31? May 25 $94 $0 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,500 in May? May 06 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Iran strike France by April 30, 2026? Apr 19 $419 $0 +0%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 20 Apr 16 $303 $0 +0%
Valorant: MYVRA GC vs No Sweat Blossom (BO3) - VCT Game Changers Latin Apr 01 $11 −$1 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 BUY No 95¢ $370 1h
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31? SELL No 93¢ $372 2h
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31? BUY No 93¢ $372 5h
Russia coup attempt in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $244 9d
Russia coup attempt in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $247 10d
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? BUY No 93¢ $447 27d
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $449 27d
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $448 27d
Spread: Vålerenga Fotball (-2.5) BUY Vålerenga Fotball 10¢ $52 34d
Spread: Vålerenga Fotball (-2.5) BUY Vålerenga Fotball 10¢ $54 34d
Will Russia enter Stinky by May 31? SELL Yes $49 34d
Will Russia enter Stinky by May 31? SELL Yes $45 34d
Will Russia enter Stinky by May 31? BUY Yes $46 34d
Will Russia enter Stinky by May 31? BUY Yes $48 34d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,500 in May? SELL Yes 38¢ $31 52d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,500 in May? BUY Yes 37¢ $30 52d
Will Iran strike France by April 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $99 70d
Will Iran strike France by April 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $73 70d
Will Iran strike France by April 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $86 70d
Will Iran strike France by April 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $234 72d
Will Iran strike France by April 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $346 72d
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 20 SELL No 92¢ $303 73d
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 20 BUY No 92¢ $303 73d
Valorant: MYVRA GC vs No Sweat Blossom (BO3) - VCT Game Changers Latin BUY MYVRA GC 55¢ $11 96d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $374.20 · official $374.20 (match) · 28 history records