Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:29:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

9F 0x9f90…03a5 crypto 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ bot/MM pace (66 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$40 (+4%) realized +$40 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip

Net edge-34%after slip

Net WR35%break-even

Win rate41%7W / 10L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$53per market

Trades / day66.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

uncopyable — bot pace (66 trades/day)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +35%

net ROI/market (all)-23.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	17	-14.9%	-23.0%	41%	35%	-23.1%
≤30d	17	-14.9%	-23.0%	41%	35%	-23.1%
≤90d	17	-14.9%	-23.0%	41%	35%	-23.1%
all	17	-14.9%	-23.0%	41%	35%	-23.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover66.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-23.0%	35%	-23.1%
10% ← realistic here	-30.4%	35%	-30.5%
15%	-37.1%	29%	-37.2%
20%	-43.3%	18%	-43.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 45% · top 2 64% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

14% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -15% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -3% → late -25% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$31 vs −$33 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.65 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$40

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)41%

Wins / losses7 / 10

Open positions0

Markets (closed)17 / 17

History coverage1d

Avg bet$53

Trades / day66.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 17 Trades

no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Jun 19	$147	−$91	-62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Jun 19	$24	−$9	-35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Jun 19	$42	−$42	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Jun 19	$26	+$21	+79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Jun 19	$52	−$1	-2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Jun 19	$31	−$30	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Jun 19	$21	+$10	+49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Jun 19	$103	+$43	+42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Jun 19	$26	−$25	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Jun 19	$137	−$35	-26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Jun 19	$59	−$50	-85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Jun 18	$31	+$10	+31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Jun 18	$26	+$37	+140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Jun 18	$31	−$25	-80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Jun 18	$25	$0	+1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Jun 18	$63	+$97	+154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Jun 18	$52	−$26	-51%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	BUY Up	25¢	$4	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	SELL Down	67¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	BUY Down	68¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	BUY Down	66¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	SELL Up	39¢	$6	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	BUY Up	62¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	BUY Up	62¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	BUY Up	3¢	$18	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	BUY Up	4¢	$27	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	SELL Up	36¢	$56	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	BUY Up	61¢	$103	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	BUY Up	7¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	BUY Up	7¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	BUY Up	7¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	BUY Up	18¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	BUY Up	16¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	BUY Up	18¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	BUY Up	33¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	BUY Up	40¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	SELL Up	63¢	$47	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	BUY Up	33¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	SELL Up	66¢	$28	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	BUY Up	58¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	SELL Up	32¢	$23	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	BUY Up	33¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	BUY Up	10¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	BUY Up	38¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	SELL Down	20¢	$4	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	SELL Down	20¢	$7	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	BUY Down	21¢	$5	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 74 history records