Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:50:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f8f…cbcd crypto 127 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$56 (+1%) realized +$56 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate49%62W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day26.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$142
7 days−$142
14 days−$142
30 days−$149
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$152
world 1% +$3
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-29.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 95 -28.6% -35.4% 45% 24% -13.2%
≤30d 127 -22.0% -29.4% 49% 28% -13.1%
≤90d 127 -22.0% -29.4% 49% 28% -13.1%
all 127 -22.0% -29.4% 49% 28% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.4% 28% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -36.1% 16% -21.5%
15% -42.3% 11% -29.0%
20% -48.0% 8% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$9 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses62 / 65
Open positions0
Markets (closed)127 / 127
History coverage22d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day26.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 127 Trades
no open positions (47 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$11 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $17 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $13 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $17 −$7 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $38 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $23 −$19 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $46 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$7 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $108 −$100 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $210 −$7 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $102 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $406 +$34 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $305 −$67 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $309 +$86 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $308 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$23 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $72 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $103 +$52 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $42 −$7 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $3 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $2 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $14 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $3 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $3 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 638 history records