Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:48:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f8e…162b crypto 145 markets active 1h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$346 (-13%) realized −$346 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%61W / 84L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$20
14 days−$166
30 days−$241
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$427
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +5.1% -4.9% 48% 48% -16.1%
≤30d 112 -14.0% -22.2% 44% 44% -34.4%
≤90d 127 -23.6% -30.9% 39% 39% -57.6%
all 145 -16.0% -24.0% 42% 42% -24.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.0% 42% -24.2%
10% -31.3% 42% -31.4%
15% -37.9% 42% -38.0%
20% -44.0% 39% -44.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -53% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$16 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$346
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses61 / 84
Open positions0
Markets (closed)145 / 145
History coverage113d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 145 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$2 -52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 18 $2 +$2 +75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 18 $16 −$13 -82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 18 $24 −$9 -36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 18 $22 −$21 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$20 +95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 18 $12 −$6 -50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $16 +$15 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 18 $16 −$15 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $22 −$21 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 18 $12 +$11 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 18 $12 −$12 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $9 +$9 +99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 18 $9 +$10 +104%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 18 $9 +$11 +123%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $6 +$5 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 18 $6 +$9 +141%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$6 +196%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $2 +$2 +84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 18 $8 −$7 -86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $4 +$3 +80%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $4 +$3 +69%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$2 -35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 09 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 09 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 09 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 09 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$6 +116%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 09 $18 +$16 +88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 09 $12 +$11 +85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 09 $12 +$8 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 09 $16 −$10 -64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 09 $9 +$7 +74%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$3 +87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 47m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $2 50m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $4 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Up 9¢ $1 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Up 9¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $24 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $16 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $40 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $21 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 388 history records