Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:22:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
9F 0x9f8d…1b84 crypto 1670 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 12d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$605 (+3%) realized +$605 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate6%110W / 1625L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day26.8pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$180
7 days+$42
14 days+$227
30 days+$227
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% +$8
sports 15% +$261
other 11% +$70
world 2% +$92
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1320 -5.7% -14.7% 7% 5% -9.2%
≤30d 1735 -4.5% -13.6% 6% 5% -8.5%
≤90d 1735 -4.5% -13.6% 6% 5% -8.5%
all 1735 -4.5% -13.6% 6% 5% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.6% 5% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -21.9% 3% -17.2%
15% -29.4% 2% -25.2%
20% -36.4% 1% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$12 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized+$605
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses110 / 1625
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1735 / 1670
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day26.8
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1735 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 56¢ 58¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-27%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? No 49¢ 52¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 55¢ 51¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 102 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Canada vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 27 $0 −$5 -11338%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Norway vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 27 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Haiti vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will SC Internacional win on 2026-05-31? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY No 15¢ $2 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 90¢ $47 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 90¢ $47 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 89¢ $92 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 89¢ $0 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 89¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 89¢ $23 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 89¢ $4 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 89¢ $2 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 89¢ $7 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 89¢ $5 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 89¢ $2 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 89¢ $4 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 89¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 89¢ $3 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 89¢ $2 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 89¢ $4 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 89¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 89¢ $46 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 89¢ $2 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 89¢ $2 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 88¢ $97 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 83¢ $4 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 83¢ $119 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 79¢ $10 2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 79¢ $20 2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 79¢ $2 2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 79¢ $2 2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 79¢ $20 2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 79¢ $18 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.88 · official $67.88 (match) · 3500 history records