Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:03:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f84…e957 crypto 97 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (2299 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2,852 (+13%) realized +$2,905 · open −$53
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate56%54W / 42L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$228per market
Trades / day2298.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$523now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$496
other 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (2299 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)+28.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 96 +42.5% +28.9% 56% 21% -7.2%
≤30d 96 +42.5% +28.9% 56% 21% -7.2%
≤90d 96 +42.5% +28.9% 56% 21% -7.2%
all 96 +42.5% +28.9% 56% 21% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2298.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +28.9% 21% -7.2%
10% ← realistic here +16.6% 8% -16.1%
15% +5.3% 7% -24.2%
20% -5.0% 5% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +43% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late +78% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
35.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$12 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.13 per $1 lost it wins $2.13
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$523
Realized+$2,905
Unrealized−$53
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses54 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)96 / 97
History coverage2d ⚠
Avg bet$228
Trades / day2298.6
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET Down 83¢ 100¢ $246 $294 +$49 (+20%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET Down 70¢ 100¢ $101 $144 +$43 (+43%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET Up 0¢ 56¢ $0 $42 +$42 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET Down 39¢ 44¢ $35 $40 +$5 (+14%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET Up 0¢ 56¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+0%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 10PM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -740%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$23 +15372%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$6 +1775%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET Jun 17 $306 +$21 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET Jun 17 $304 +$29 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET Jun 17 $289 −$27 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET Jun 17 $348 +$8 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET Jun 17 $372 −$37 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET Jun 17 $590 −$34 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $182 −$7 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $513 +$8 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET Jun 17 $295 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET Jun 17 $460 +$40 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET Jun 17 $600 −$6 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET Jun 17 $223 −$3 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET Jun 17 $491 +$34 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET Jun 17 $257 +$5 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET Jun 17 $184 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET Jun 17 $349 −$2 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7PM ET Jun 17 $323 +$14 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7PM ET Jun 17 $117 +$22 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET Jun 16 $868 −$112 -13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET Jun 16 $194 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $460 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $176 −$12 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET Jun 16 $233 +$27 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET Jun 16 $90 −$9 -10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET Jun 16 $119 +$16 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET Jun 16 $85 +$10 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET Jun 16 $389 +$16 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET Jun 16 $236 +$22 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$20 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $287 −$1 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $71 −$6 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET Jun 16 $233 −$25 -11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET Jun 16 $190 −$4 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET Jun 16 $494 −$9 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET Jun 16 $124 −$14 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET Jun 16 $429 +$17 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET Jun 16 $721 +$25 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Jun 16 $105 +$15 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Jun 16 $949 +$145 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $474 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $147 −$9 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET Jun 16 $190 −$27 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET Jun 16 $529 +$63 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET Jun 16 $413 +$11 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET Jun 16 $113 +$4 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET Jun 16 $197 +$14 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $6 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $9 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $16 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $6 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $15 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $15 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $17 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $24 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $12 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $24 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $14 31m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $24 31m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $24 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $21 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $3 40m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $18 46m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $19 46m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $19 46m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $523.18 · official $522.67 (match) · 3500 history records