Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:18:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
9F 0x9f80…f911 other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2,496 (-74%) realized −$2,496 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%3W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$261per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$86
7 days−$1,001
14 days−$1,501
30 days−$2,404
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$2,073
sports 16% −$332
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-54.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -27.5% -34.4% 33% 33% -57.0%
≤30d 13 -49.8% -54.6% 23% 23% -75.5%
≤90d 13 -49.8% -54.6% 23% 23% -75.5%
all 13 -49.8% -54.6% 23% 23% -75.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -54.6% 23% -75.5%
10% -58.9% 15% -77.8%
15% -62.9% 15% -80.0%
20% -66.5% 15% -81.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -74% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -50% · $-wt -74% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -58% → late -43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$144 vs −$284 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,496
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses3 / 10
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage28d
Avg bet$261
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $51 +$96 +188%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $122 −$120 -98%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 26 $103 −$62 -60%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $213 −$210 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $343 −$340 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $304 −$300 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $201 +$26 +13%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $204 +$309 +152%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $410 −$400 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $256 −$250 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $257 −$250 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $811 −$787 -97%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $119 −$116 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $51 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $122 26h
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? SELL Yes $37 30h
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes $103 31h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $213 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 74¢ $302 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 45¢ $102 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $202 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $227 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 88¢ $201 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $512 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $204 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $205 6d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 28¢ $204 6d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $256 9d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $257 9d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes $20 28d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes $51 28d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes $412 28d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes $327 28d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) BUY Paris Saint-Germain FC $119 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 24 history records