Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:14:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f7e…67c4 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$76 (-36%) realized −$76 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$81
7 days−$59
14 days−$59
30 days−$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$86
sports 19% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-32.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -30.2% -36.8% 33% 33% -61.9%
≤30d 6 -25.1% -32.2% 33% 33% -51.5%
≤90d 6 -25.1% -32.2% 33% 33% -51.5%
all 6 -25.1% -32.2% 33% 33% -51.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.2% 33% -51.5%
10% -38.7% 33% -56.1%
15% -44.6% 33% -60.4%
20% -50.1% 33% -64.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -46% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$32 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$76
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage16d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $40 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$22 +109%
Will Dalian Yingbo FC win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $20 +$28 +140%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $40 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $41 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $40 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 3d
Will Dalian Yingbo FC win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 15d
Will Dalian Yingbo FC win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 15d
Will Dalian Yingbo FC win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 15d
Will Dalian Yingbo FC win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 15d
Will Dalian Yingbo FC win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 15d
Will Dalian Yingbo FC win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 15d
Will Dalian Yingbo FC win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 15d
Will Dalian Yingbo FC win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 15d
Will Dalian Yingbo FC win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 15d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 15d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 74¢ $48 15d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.36 · official $39.36 (match) · 21 history records