Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:46:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f7e…80bd politics 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 302d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate25%13W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% +$3
politics 30% −$1
other 19% $0
tech 7% $0
sports 4% $0
economics 4% $0
culture 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +4.0% -5.9% 100% 0% -6.8%
≤30d 11 +1.3% -8.4% 45% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 11 +1.3% -8.4% 45% 0% -8.7%
all 51 +0.1% -9.4% 25% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.81 per $1 lost it wins $1.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

302d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses13 / 38
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage302d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $47 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $24 +$2 +10%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $27 +$1 +2%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 11 $84 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $25 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $39 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $49 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $49 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $14 $0 +2%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 13 $39 $0 +0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Oct 02 $20 $0 -2%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 28 $2 $0 -1%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 25 $9 $0 -1%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 09 $39 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 09 $39 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 08 $39 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 08 $40 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Scott Bessent as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 27 $40 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Aug 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Aug 27 $39 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 26 $39 $0 +0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 26 $19 −$1 -4%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 25 $34 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Aug 25 $9 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 25 $9 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Aug 24 $9 $0 -3%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 24 $31 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 23 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Aug 23 $5 $0 -2%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 23 $1 $0 -4%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 23 $35 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 22 $36 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 22 $35 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 22 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 22 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 22 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 21 $6 $0 -0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Aug 21 $38 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $27 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $47 3h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $47 4h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 33¢ $26 29h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 30¢ $14 31h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 30¢ $10 31h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $7 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $18 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $18 6d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $17 8d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $23 8d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $40 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 44¢ $25 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $25 9d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $44 10d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $43 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $7 11d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $33 11d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $39 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $44 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $44 12d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $32 12d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $8 12d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $40 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $5 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $5 12d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $10 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.36 · official $27.36 (match) · 254 history records