Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:05:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f7d…dcdc other 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$22 (-10%) realized +$8 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$62
sports 18% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +8.1% -2.2% 29% 29% -30.2%
≤30d 7 +8.1% -2.2% 29% 29% -30.2%
≤90d 7 +8.1% -2.2% 29% 29% -30.2%
all 7 +8.1% -2.2% 29% 29% -30.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.2% 29% -30.2%
10% -11.5% 29% -36.9%
15% -20.1% 29% -43.0%
20% -27.9% 29% -48.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$13 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized+$8
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage3d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 90¢ 100¢ $95 $106 +$11 (+11%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? No 1¢ 0¢ $31 $1 −$30 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $29 −$28 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $12 +$38 +307%
Croatia leading at halftime? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -97%
England leading at halftime? Jun 17 $28 −$28 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +85%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $18 −$4 -24%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $9 −$1 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 0¢ $1 20m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 0¢ $1 20m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 0¢ $1 20m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 90¢ $95 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 16¢ $28 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $29 23h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $28 2d
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 2d
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 24¢ $12 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 32¢ $3 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 23¢ $3 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 43¢ $4 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 49¢ $9 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 86¢ $9 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 83¢ $9 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 64¢ $6 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 76¢ $9 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.53 · official $106.53 (match) · 21 history records