Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:05:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f7b…7f37 sports 116 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$26,407 (-8%) realized −$26,520 · open +$113
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate47%54W / 61L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,925per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$2,376est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$5,003now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$44,966
7 days−$44,966
14 days−$44,966
30 days−$27,681
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% +$15,421
other 31% −$41,989
crypto 21% −$858
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -34.8% -41.0% 38% 38% -42.5%
≤30d 32 -11.9% -20.3% 50% 47% -26.4%
≤90d 115 -9.8% -18.3% 47% 46% -17.1%
all 115 -9.8% -18.3% 47% 46% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.3% 46% -17.1%
10% ← realistic here -26.2% 46% -25.0%
15% -33.3% 43% -32.2%
20% -39.8% 40% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$3,839) neutral
Persistence
early -8% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2,532 vs −$2,693 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$5,003
Realized−$26,520
Unrealized+$113
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses54 / 61
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$2,376
Open positions1
Markets (closed)115 / 116
History coverage64d
Avg bet$2,925
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Up 57¢ 58¢ $4,891 $5,003 +$113 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 60 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 24 $6,860 +$4,791 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 24 $2,882 −$2,770 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 24 $5,026 +$3,160 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 24 $3,438 −$3,328 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 24 $2,402 −$2,310 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 24 $4,040 −$3,921 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 24 $5,099 −$4,897 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 24 $3,608 +$2,959 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 24 $4,287 +$2,144 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 24 $4,217 +$3,418 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 24 $3,550 +$3,736 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 24 $2,022 −$1,957 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 24 $2,773 +$1,670 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 24 $4,439 −$4,314 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 24 $5,052 +$3,657 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 24 $2,502 −$2,423 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 24 $2,166 −$2,067 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 24 $2,520 +$1,483 +59%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $4,883 −$4,774 -98%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $6,862 −$6,710 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $9,799 −$9,614 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $14,854 −$14,632 -98%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. KT Wiz Jun 23 $884 −$868 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5,874 −$5,804 -99%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $6,410 −$6,282 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $8,936 +$4,690 +52%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee May 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-04-27? May 29 $1,027 +$1,128 +110%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? May 29 $2,460 +$2,386 +97%
Madrid Open: Belinda Bencic vs Hailey Baptiste May 29 $1,568 +$3,261 +208%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 29 $9,800 +$7,469 +76%
Madrid Open: Ann Li vs Leylah Fernandez May 29 $9,622 +$3,040 +32%
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs. Casper Ruud: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Apr 27 $2,548 −$2,514 -99%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-04-26? Apr 27 $3,920 +$6,477 +165%
Madrid Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Jelena Ostapenko Apr 27 $6,654 +$6,673 +100%
Madrid Open: Joao Fonseca vs Rafael Jodar Apr 27 $9,685 +$9,231 +95%
Qinwen Zheng vs. Elena Rybakina: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Apr 26 $1,470 +$1,511 +103%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $4,410 +$4,278 +97%
Madrid Open: Vit Kopriva vs Arthur Rinderknech Apr 26 $1,715 +$1,847 +108%
Will Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Real Salt Lake end in a draw? Apr 26 $3,126 −$3,056 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Fonseca vs Jodar Apr 26 $6,272 −$6,203 -99%
Abidjan: Gauthier Onclin vs Hamish Stewart Apr 26 $980 −$962 -98%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $2,862 +$1,929 +67%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $980 +$2,020 +206%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $2,421 −$2,373 -98%
Will Aarhus GF win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $2,857 −$2,802 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Pegula vs Kostyuk Apr 26 $980 +$776 +79%
Madrid Open: Cameron Norrie vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Apr 26 $4,410 −$4,341 -98%
Madrid Open: Katerina Siniakova vs Caty McNally Apr 26 $2,940 +$3,658 +124%
Oeiras 4: Polina Kudermetova vs Fiona Ferro Apr 26 $1,921 +$1,530 +80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1,575 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1,434 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1,013 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $311 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $724 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $324 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $631 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $849 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $837 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1,435 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $609 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $8,186 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1,573 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $936 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2,517 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1,027 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $277 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $368 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $646 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1,120 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $630 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $775 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $997 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $438 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $491 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $966 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $317 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $672 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1,156 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1,094 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,003.37 · official $5,003.37 (match) · 333 history records