Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:15:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
9F 0x9f7a…07a0 weather 328 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$249 (+11%) realized +$251 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate35%107W / 202L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day24.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$249now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days−$41
14 days+$31
30 days+$198
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 66% +$74
other 11% +$49
world 7% +$88
sports 7% −$1
finance 5% −$11
politics 3% −$1
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -34.5% -40.8% 19% 19% -23.6%
≤30d 309 +13.2% +2.4% 35% 32% -1.6%
≤90d 309 +13.2% +2.4% 35% 32% -1.6%
all 309 +13.2% +2.4% 35% 32% -1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.4% 32% -1.6%
10% ← realistic here -7.4% 27% -11.0%
15% -16.3% 22% -19.6%
20% -24.5% 18% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$2 · ×2.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$249
Realized+$251
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses107 / 202
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions19
Markets (closed)309 / 328
History coverage30d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day24.8
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 309 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
No one announced as next James Bond? Yes 72¢ 89¢ $47 $58 +$11 (+24%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 76¢ 88¢ $38 $44 +$6 (+16%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+0%)
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 87¢ 94¢ $21 $23 +$2 (+9%)
Will Ousmane Dembélé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 78¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-3%)
Will the announcers say "Weather" during the England vs Croatia FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 47¢ 38¢ $9 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Will the announcers say "History" during the England vs Croatia FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $8 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Will the announcers say "What A Save" during the England vs Croatia FIFA World Cup Match? No 71¢ 70¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the England vs Croatia FIFA World Cup Match? No 69¢ 68¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will the announcers say "Foul" 20+ times during the England vs Croatia FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 71¢ 67¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-6%)
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the England vs Croatia FIFA World Cup Match? No 73¢ 66¢ $7 $7 −$1 (-10%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-7%)
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the England vs Croatia FIFA World Cup Match? No 57¢ 56¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Will the announcers say "Red Card" during the England vs Croatia FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 57¢ 53¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will the announcers say "Offside" or "Offsides" 10+ times during the England vs Croatia FIFA World Cup Match? No 27¢ 46¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+72%)
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the England vs Croatia FIFA World Cup Match? No 43¢ 44¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? Yes 70¢ 10¢ $22 $3 −$18 (-85%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 17¢ 14¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-15%)
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the England vs Croatia FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 159 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jamal Musiala score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $70 +$23 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $12 +$7 +57%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $18 −$17 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$2 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$2 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $14 −$13 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 8? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C or below on May 27? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 6? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 7? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 10? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 5? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 5? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 9? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C or below on June 6? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$8 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $12 +$4 +33%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $12 −$12 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$8 +527%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $15 −$11 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $6 +$2 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 +$20 +756%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 +$8 +525%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 −$1 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 -44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the announcers say "Weather" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W BUY Yes 47¢ $10 1h
Will the announcers say "Offside" or "Offsides" 10+ times during the E BUY No 27¢ $3 1h
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wor BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W BUY No 73¢ $7 1h
Will the announcers say "What A Save" during the England vs Croatia FI BUY No 71¢ $7 1h
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the England vs Croatia FIFA BUY No 69¢ $7 1h
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the England vs Croatia FI BUY No 43¢ $4 1h
Will the announcers say "History" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W BUY Yes 75¢ $8 1h
Will the announcers say "Red Card" during the England vs Croatia FIFA BUY Yes 57¢ $6 1h
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wor BUY No 57¢ $6 1h
Will the announcers say "Foul" 20+ times during the England vs Croatia BUY Yes 71¢ $7 1h
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 87¢ $21 31h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? BUY No 13¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? BUY No 11¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? SELL No 13¢ $3 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 15¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 18¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 17¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 12? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 12? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12? SELL No 60¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 33¢ $3 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 12? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 12? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 4d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 64¢ $4 4d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 62¢ $4 4d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 64¢ $3 4d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? BUY No 60¢ $12 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $249.16 · official $249.16 (match) · 844 history records