Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:02:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f79…5487 other 61 markets active 0h ago coverage 45d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$77 (-1%) realized −$8 · open −$69
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate29%14W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$1,226now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$135
7 days+$625
14 days+$432
30 days+$396
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$348
world 17% −$181
crypto 15% −$123
sports 5% +$36
politics 5% −$175
tech 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-48.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -26.4% -33.4% 42% 29% +7.9%
≤30d 36 -23.7% -31.0% 39% 28% +0.0%
≤90d 48 -42.8% -48.3% 29% 21% -10.3%
all 48 -42.8% -48.3% 29% 21% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.3% 21% -10.3%
10% -53.2% 17% -18.9%
15% -57.7% 17% -26.7%
20% -61.9% 8% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 61% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -59% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$30 · ×2.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$1,226
Realized−$8
Unrealized−$69
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses14 / 34
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions13
Markets (closed)48 / 61
History coverage45d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 81¢ 96¢ $500 $590 +$90 (+18%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $200 $190 −$10 (-5%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 41¢ 30¢ $100 $74 −$26 (-26%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 29¢ 12¢ $120 $52 −$68 (-57%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 15¢ $30 $51 +$21 (+71%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+7%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+5%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-5%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-6%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Yes 27¢ 7¢ $50 $13 −$37 (-73%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 19¢ 2¢ $46 $5 −$40 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 25 $52 −$16 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 25 $533 +$77 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 25 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 25 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 25 $107 −$100 -94%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $782 +$57 +7%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 24 $3 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $2 $0 +12%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $949 +$4 +0%
Croatia to score first vs. Panama? Jun 24 $202 +$84 +42%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $202 +$92 +46%
England to score first vs. Ghana? Jun 23 $9 −$9 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $134 +$516 +384%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -99%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $103 +$39 +37%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 +$17 +57%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$37 +365%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $27 −$27 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 17 $51 +$52 +101%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $67 −$67 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $45 +$21 +46%
No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30? Jun 16 $240 −$194 -81%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom May 28 $10 −$6 -58%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Trump say "Cookie" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $71 −$70 -98%
Will Trump say "TikTok" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Trump say "Autopen" or "Auto Pen" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $21 −$20 -96%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $31 −$30 -96%
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $31 −$30 -97%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit? May 12 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $52 −$50 -95%
Will Trump speak to Reza Pahlavi in May? May 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Trump speak to Pope Leo XIV in May? May 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 12 $103 −$100 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 20m
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 36m
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $204 38m
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $102 38m
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $506 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $107 11h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 93¢ $782 22h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $31 31h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 89¢ $2 39h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 89¢ $722 39h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 42¢ $145 39h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $227 44h
Croatia to score first vs. Panama? BUY Yes 70¢ $202 45h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $202 45h
England to score first vs. Ghana? BUY Yes 30¢ $9 45h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 22¢ $10 3d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 78¢ $21 4d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 24¢ $15 5d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 5d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 5d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $134 6d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $141 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,226.48 · official $1,226.54 (match) · 131 history records