Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:21:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
9F 0x9f78…24a4 other 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 594d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$22 (-0%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate19%12W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$282per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$9
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 77% −$13
politics 12% −$9
other 6% −$2
sports 2% −$1
crypto 1% +$1
culture 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 18 +5.7% -4.4% 17% 6% -7.6%
≤90d 52 -3.3% -12.5% 21% 13% -9.6%
all 62 -2.9% -12.1% 19% 11% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 11% -9.6%
10% -20.5% 10% -18.3%
15% -28.2% 5% -26.2%
20% -35.2% 5% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×2.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

594d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses12 / 50
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)62 / 63
History coverage594d
Avg bet$282
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $53 $0 +0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $15 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $15 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $17 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $14 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $17 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $11 $0 -0%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 10 $8 +$9 +105%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $22 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $16 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 03 $12 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $15 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? Jun 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $16 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $88 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 30 $13 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $11 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 18 $69 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $70 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $72 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $65 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $66 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $66 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 06 $70 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 6? May 06 $29 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $66 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $67 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 30 $66 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 24 $71 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $66 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 23 $70 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $72 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $70 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $69 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 19 $68 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Apr 19 $72 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $67 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $68 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Apr 11 $23 $0 -2%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 07 $11 +$3 +29%
Canucks vs. Golden Knights Apr 06 $29 −$29 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Pistons Apr 06 $7 +$5 +65%
Hawks vs. Magic Apr 02 $18 +$10 +57%
Texas Longhorns vs. Purdue Boilermakers Mar 27 $23 +$7 +31%
Lakers vs. Pacers Mar 27 $40 +$7 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $46 1h
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $14 3h
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $14 6h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $15 47h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 2d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $15 2d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $15 2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $53 3d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $17 3d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $17 3d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $13 6d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 6d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $17 8d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $17 8d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 8d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 8d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 48¢ $8 10d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $12 13d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 13d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $16 14d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $16 14d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $12 15d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $12 15d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $15 16d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $15 16d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $16 17d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $16 18d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $15 19d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $15 19d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $13 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.81 · official $45.81 (match) · 247 history records