Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:40:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f77…0a09 crypto 44 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (105 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$34 · open +$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate72%31W / 12L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day105.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$161
other 2% +$10
sports 1% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (105 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +4.1% -5.8% 72% 40% +3.7%
≤30d 43 +4.1% -5.8% 72% 40% +3.7%
≤90d 43 +4.1% -5.8% 72% 40% +3.7%
all 43 +4.1% -5.8% 72% 40% +3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover105.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.8% 40% +3.7%
10% ← realistic here -14.8% 26% -6.2%
15% -23.0% 23% -15.3%
20% -30.6% 16% -23.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.14 per $1 lost it wins $3.14
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$32
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses31 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage2d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day105.4
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Up 72¢ 100¢ $85 $117 +$32 (+38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 21 $67 +$32 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 21 $58 +$35 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $45 +$42 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 21 $40 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 21 $52 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 21 $24 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 21 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 21 $44 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 21 $56 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 21 $36 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 21 $36 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 21 $36 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 21 $22 +$18 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 21 $28 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 21 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$9 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 21 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 21 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 21 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$5 +100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $18 +$10 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$6 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 20 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 20 $12 +$6 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 20 $15 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 20 $19 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 20 $7 +$1 +12%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $13 +$6 +48%
Paraguay leading at halftime? Jun 20 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$6 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 20 $12 −$6 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 20 $6 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 19 $13 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 19 $40 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $20 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $20 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $46 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $20 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $46 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $93 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $20 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $37 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $21 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $21 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $20 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $20 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $4 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $20 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $4 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $20 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $20 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $20 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $20 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $4 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $4 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $36 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $36 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.16 · official $117.16 (match) · 261 history records