Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:38:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f76…db5d world 36 markets active 3h ago coverage 308d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$48 (+3%) realized +$48 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate25%9W / 27L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$19
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% −$19
other 16% +$67
politics 7% $0
sports 3% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 14 -2.7% -12.0% 21% 0% -10.8%
≤90d 14 -2.7% -12.0% 21% 0% -10.8%
all 36 +5.3% -4.7% 25% 3% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.7% 3% -7.0%
10% -13.9% 3% -15.9%
15% -22.2% 3% -24.0%
20% -29.8% 3% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 97% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$2 · ×3.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.68 per $1 lost it wins $2.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

308d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses9 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage308d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $67 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $17 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $324 −$7 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $6 $0 -8%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $80 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $55 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $53 −$9 -16%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $29 −$4 -12%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $204 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $71 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $102 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $177 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $101 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $16 +$1 +3%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $22 +$74 +335%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Nov 19 $27 $0 +2%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 07 $25 $0 +1%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 24 $3 $0 -1%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 23 $18 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 23 $18 $0 +1%
Will Trump meet with Jerome Powell in August? Aug 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will Nick Delehanty win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 22 $19 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 22 $17 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Aug 22 $2 $0 -9%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 21 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 21 $18 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Aug 21 $18 $0 -2%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 20 $27 $0 -1%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 20 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 20 $29 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in August? Aug 20 $14 $0 -0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 20 $42 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $67 2h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $22 7h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $30 7h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $15 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $18 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $10 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $28 13h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $17 7d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $17 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $40 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $45 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $57 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $18 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $9 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $3 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $3 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 7¢ $6 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $81 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $67 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $13 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 65¢ $41 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 65¢ $13 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 65¢ $55 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $14 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $46 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $54 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $10 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $21 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $75 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 84¢ $102 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 193 history records