Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:38:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f70…3e9f world 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 478d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate43%18W / 24L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$3
other 35% +$1
politics 10% +$5
crypto 5% −$2
culture 3% $0
weather 1% −$1
economics 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 14 +0.1% -9.4% 29% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 14 +0.1% -9.4% 29% 0% -9.5%
all 42 -0.6% -10.1% 43% 2% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 2% -9.0%
10% -18.7% 2% -17.7%
15% -26.6% 2% -25.7%
20% -33.8% 2% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

478d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses18 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage478d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 51¢ 54¢ $44 $46 +$3 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $40 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $45 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $106 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $19 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $56 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $43 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $39 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $38 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 29 $19 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $12 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $39 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 27 $22 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Dec 04 $17 +$1 +4%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 02 $18 $0 -0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jul 01 $17 $0 +1%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 27 $10 −$1 -14%
Japan prime minister Ishiba out in 2025? Jun 24 $4 +$6 +165%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 10 $10 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet less than 150 times June 6–13? Jun 10 $9 $0 +1%
Starmer out before July? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $108K on June 6? Jun 08 $10 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $10 $0 +4%
Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? Apr 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 16 $10 $0 -1%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Apr 15 $1 $0 +6%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? Apr 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Apr 12 $4 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in April? Apr 12 $16 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? Apr 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by March 31? Apr 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump post 160-179 times on Truth March 21-28? Mar 26 $12 $0 +2%
Another commercial airline evacuation before March? Mar 21 $11 +$1 +8%
Grand Canyon vs. Seattle Mar 02 $0 $0 -100%
Will "Flow" win Best Animated Feature at the 2025 Oscars? Mar 02 $11 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on March 3? Mar 02 $12 −$1 -10%
Will Taylor Swift attend the Oscars? Mar 02 $12 $0 -1%
Georgescu banned from Romania election? Mar 02 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $44 1h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $25 19d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $15 19d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $40 19d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $43 19d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $43 19d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $11 19d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $29 19d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $39 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $28 21d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $28 21d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes $1 22d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes $1 22d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes $1 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $19 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $19 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $35 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $4 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $39 23d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $43 23d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $43 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $39 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $39 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $6 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $2 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $31 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 93¢ $38 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $19 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $4 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $11 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.44 · official $46.44 (match) · 121 history records